The “excess deaths” recorded during the pandemic period were 5.8 times the official COVID-19 death toll in the 11 Indian states/UTs whose Citizen Registration System (CRS) data accessed by The Hindu Was. The undercount factor of 5.8 was the highest among countries that had recorded the most deaths due to the virus. Furthermore, the share of registered deaths in India was around 92%, and in 2019 only 20.7% were medically certified. Therefore, the undercount is a conservative estimate.
State wise short count
The table lists the major states for which the excess deaths and undercount factor were calculated for the period April 2020 to May 2021. The additional deaths were calculated as the difference between the registered deaths over the pandemic period and the average number of deaths recorded in 2018. And 2019 for the same month.
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state wise registration
The chart plots the death registration level (RL, %) against the share of registered deaths in states/UTs as of 2019. In five states, the share of registered deaths that were medically certified was less than 10. %.
In Madhya Pradesh, the ‘excess deaths’ were nearly 24 times the number of COVID-19 deaths recorded between April 2020 and May 2021. While 89% of the deaths were recorded in the state, only 9% of them were medically certified.
Read also: ‘More deaths’ in Delhi double official COVID-19 toll
Country-wise Undercount
The table lists the additional deaths and undercount factors for the ten countries with the highest recorded COVID-19 mortality rates other than India. Data from Brazil, Indonesia, Argentina and Iran were insufficient for analysis. Chile was also included because it has a relatively high mortality rate. The excess deaths were calculated as the difference between the deaths registered in the period between March 2020 and May 2021 and the average number of deaths recorded in 2018 and 2019 for the same months. India had the highest undercount factor among the listed countries.
cause of death
The table lists the death registration level in the countries listed in the previous table and the share of registered deaths with a known cause of mortality according to the latest available data. In nine of the 12 countries, the share of registered deaths in which the cause of death was known was over 95%.
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