Election violence: Left Front and Congress supporters protest in Kolkata against violence in West Bengal panchayat elections Photo Credit: ANI
in the month before panchayat elections in west bengal40 people were killed in election-related violence. This one is no exception; An analysis of past data shows that political violence and related deaths peaked during and around all recent elections in West Bengal. Furthermore, a comparison of states shows that West Bengal is at the forefront in this regard. Only Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), a highly militarized region, reported more such incidents in recent days. Political violence in West Bengal peaked during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and related deaths peaked during the 2018 panchayat elections.
These findings are based on an analysis of data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project’s Conflict Dataset. The database records incidents of political violence in various states since 2016. It gets data from local media and official sources. Its own local partners also record data. Political violence here includes armed clashes, significant arrests, attacks, incidents of force/state intervention during demonstrations, property destruction, mob violence and violent demonstrations. Incidents such as peaceful protests by political parties were ignored if no violence was recorded.
Map 1 | The map shows the number of incidents of political violence recorded in states between 2016 and 7 July 2023.
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While West Bengal is dominant, most states recorded some degree of political violence. Most of such incidents happened in Jammu and Kashmir, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. Since 2016, Jammu and Kashmir has witnessed 8,301 such incidents, which is more than double the 3,338 incidents recorded in West Bengal. However, it is important to note that there are many groups in the sensitive border region like Jammu and Kashmir who commit violent acts with a political motive. In addition, given the heavy military presence in Jammu and Kashmir, daily clashes with terrorists claiming to be “political targets” are also recorded in the database as political violence. The fact that political violence in J&K is not linked to elections in the state and tends to increase throughout the year makes J&K unnecessary for this analysis.
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Major states with relatively low incidence of political violence include Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Telangana, Rajasthan and Karnataka. They recorded less than 700 such incidents in total since 2016.
Chart 2 | The chart shows the number of deaths (right axis) and incidence of political violence (left axis) over time in West Bengal. Gray bars correspond to parliamentary, assembly, municipal and panchayat elections in the state.
In 2019, violence peaked around the Lok Sabha elections during the months of April and May (365 incidents). In 2018, the deaths peaked during the panchayat elections during April and May (44 deaths).
Chart 3 | The chart shows the number of incidents of political violence over time in selected states. The dotted line in each chart corresponds to the 2019 general election.
Only those states are shown in which political violence peaked around the 2019 general elections. However, it is important to note that the 2019 general election was the only Lok Sabha election since 2016, the year from which this data was recorded. Apart from West Bengal, the trend of higher political violence during general elections is also true for Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Bihar, Assam, Tripura, Chhattisgarh and Kerala. This trend is also true for states with generally low levels of political violence, such as Andhra Pradesh, Delhi, Goa, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Sikkim and Telangana.
Anushka Kataruka interning with The Hindu Data team
Source: Armed Conflict Location and Incident Data Project
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