Democracy awaits in Jammu and Kashmir

it’s been three years since President Ram Nath Kovind issued lethal orders reading Article 370 of the Indian ConstitutionPermission to Narendra Modi Administration To bifurcate the state of Jammu and Kashmir and give union territory status to its two new units, These measures, Prime Minister Modi said, will bring the rights and benefits of Indian democracy to the people of the state. Ironically, to achieve this laudable goal his administration felt compelled to simultaneously arrest over 5,000 political leaders, activists and media persons, he escaped.

hard action

Three years later, the promise of democracy seems as distant as it was on August 5, 2019. Many of the hundreds of people arrested in 2019 are still in prison without trial. Fresh arrests of dissidents and human rights defenders have become routine. The media is being silenced, and some journalists who dare to silent censorship are suffering The ‘vicious cycle’ of repeated arrests criticized by the Supreme Court of India In the case of Mohammad Zubair, despite Delimitation Commission exercise completedAssembly elections are yet to be announced. Jammu and Kashmir has been under President’s rule and then Lieutenant Governor’s rule for the last four years.

The Modi administration’s initial rationale for the harsh actions of 2019 was that security would improve and terrorism would end; that the former state would be integrated with the Indian economy and its people would prosper; that Kashmiri Pandits who have been internal refugees for more than three decades will be able to return; And that a new era of non-dynastic politics would emerge.

How much success has any of these stated goals met, if at all? The answer is disappointing. Security has not clearly improved. According to the data of the Ministry of Home Affairs, Number of civilians killed between 2019 and 2021 This was higher than Mr Modi’s first term (2014-19) – 87 in two years while it was 177 in five years. Civilian deaths declined between 2021 and 2022, as did the number of security personnel killed, partly because India and Pakistan agreed to ceasefire in February 2021, However, the numbers have started to rise again, and suggest a worrying pattern. targeting Kashmiri Pandits, elected officials of the local government ( punch) and Jammu and Kashmir Police,

secession and rebellion

Military and police experts talk about ‘hybrid extremists’ – and, more recently, ‘faceless militants’ – which, in the current circumstances, are meaningless euphemisms for the fact that the Valley’s separation from the Indian Union is such that insurgency Public support for it is touching the height of the 1990s. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal, 437 Kashmiri youth joined the insurgent ranks between 2019 and 2021. While counter-terrorist operations have eliminated known terrorist leads, that is, those identified as of 2016, they have not been able to deter the younger ones. Weapons that are in circulation or identify their occupier. The Union Home Ministry’s mistrust of the local police – placing them on the front lines of the conflict – has turned a key source of intelligence into a shambles.

economic decline

Between 2019 and 2021, the former state’s economy declined, first due to a security lockdown and then a year-and-a-half-long COVID-19 lockdown. Among the top performing states of the Indian Union, according to NITI Aayog, Jammu and Kashmir was ranked at the bottom last year. A record tourist inflow this year may help some recovery, but it will have to be set against losses in the fruit, manufacturing, carpet and handicraft industries. Local supplier complaints abound: that government agencies commission them on projects but do not pay the agreed amount.

Kashmiri Pandit Terrorists have once again become the target of attacks like in the 1990s. Four Kashmiri Pandits, including 10 Hindus, were shot in 2021including migrant workers, and in retaliation for an alleged film this year k filesIllustration of the killings of Pandits by armed groups during the 1990 insurgency. According to the Kashmiri Pandit Sangharsh Samiti, around 100 Pandit teachers who returned to the Valley under the 2008 Prime Minister’s Reconstruction Plan fled. The rest sought to be shifted to safer areas, a demand that the administration rejected. According to an soon-to-be-released report by the Forum for Human Rights in Jammu and Kashmir (I am a member), they now live under such tight security that they cannot even go out to buy groceries.

recently elected punch suffer the same fate. With his customary exaggeration, Home Minister Amit Shah claimed that a new political leadership would emerge from the panchayat ranks to replace the dynasties of the National Conference and the People’s Democratic Party. but 12 punch According to the Jammu and Kashmir Panchayat Sammelan, the shooting has been done since 2019. Since then most have been kept under tight security in hotels in Srinagar, making it difficult for them to perform duty in their constituencies.

there is a gap

Report of the Delimitation Commission Equally worrying. The new constituencies it has created seem to consolidate Hindu and Muslim majority constituencies. The most likely outcome would be to strengthen the gap that already yawns between the two communities. Incidentally, this is a goal for which terrorist organizations like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed have long worked.

Of course, it was always becoming increasingly difficult to implement the stated goals of the Modi administration. Bringing security or prosperity to the decades-torn state, as Atal Bihari Vajpayee or Manmohan Singh might have told Mr Modi, was a long-term task. Nevertheless, each achieved some degree of success. Atal Bihari Vajpayee broke ground to establish peace and Dr. Manmohan Singh continued Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s policy, adding a tight security grid that sharply reduced casualties between civilian and security forces, and the state’s The economy was opened up to cross-border trade, an initiative that benefited Jammu as much as the Valley. There was a peace dividend to the economy. Five thousand Kashmiri Pandits returned, though somewhat uncertain. Independent media proliferated, even though its quality was uneven.

Parliament can act

The Modi administration has so far chosen another path, of unilateralism on electoral democracy and freedom of expression. In doing so, it has eroded the profits earned by Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Dr. Singh between 2000 and 2014. But it could still start a long haul to stabilize a very dangerous situation. Assembly elections are the first step which should be taken immediately. If they could be held under the earlier delimitation and the present report of the commission could be placed in the new assembly for consultation, it would be called ‘cooperative federalism’ (an oxymoronic formulation that applied to India’s partially federal structure). is) in the spirit.

Home Minister Shah has repeatedly promised to restore statehood. Three years is a long time to keep that promise without realizing it. Parliament is currently in session and can easily amend Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act, 2019, What could be a more fitting conclusion to the 75th year of independence than a return to the core elements of electoral democracy in Jammu and Kashmir, which alone will lead to an improvement in human rights on the ground?

Radha Kumar is a writer and policy analyst