Descending into chaos: on the Myanmar crisis

The people of Myanmar must immediately end the violent repression of democratic protests

decision by ASEAN will exclude Myanmar’s military junta Its annual summit, held on 26-28 October, is a major setback for the generals’ efforts to gain territorial legitimacy for their brutal rule. since it took power Toppling Aung San Suu Kyi’s Democratic Government In February, the junta launched a reign of terror, claiming the lives of an estimated 1,000 people. Ms Suu Kyi, who headed a semi-democratic government for five years since 2015, has been under house arrest since the coup and faces absurd charges such as “illegal walkie-talkies”. Thousands of others were arrested by the military, which in the past was notorious for its retaliation for democratic protests. But this time the crisis seems to be much deeper. Even months after the seizure of power, the junta, led by General Min Aung Huling, is still struggling to restore order. If in the past the National League for Democracy (NLD), Ms. Suu Kyi’s party, had upheld non-violence despite repression, this time NLD leaders have called for a “revolution”. The remnants of the old regime have formed a national unity government, which claims to be the true representative of Myanmar. In the cities, protests were reduced to armed fighting between pro-democracy protesters and security personnel, while in the jungles, anti-junta groups joined hands with rebels for military training. The situation was so dire that the UN special envoy warned this month that Myanmar had descended into civil war.

One of the regional groups with some leverage on the junta is ASEAN. In April, General Min Aung Huling was invited to Jakarta for emergency talks with ASEAN members. The bloc asked them to end the violence immediately, start a reconciliation process and allow a regional special envoy to meet with all stakeholders, including Ms Suu Kyi. None of these requests were fulfilled. Most recent reports suggest that the junta has been systematically torturing political prisoners. A special envoy was appointed as part of the ASEAN plan, but she was not allowed to meet with Ms. Suu Kyi. Regime violence, political crisis and strikes and retaliatory strikes by protesters have pushed Myanmar to the brink of collapse. According to the United Nations, about 3 million people are in need of life-saving assistance due to “conflicts, food insecurity, natural disasters and COVID-19”. Nevertheless, the generals show no signs of compromise and are unwilling to speak with the NLD. Violence may allow them to hold on to power for now, but it is not sustainable. ASEAN’s defiance is a reminder that continued violence can lead to regional isolation of the regime, which could worsen the crisis. The international community must continue to pressurize the junta and begin the process of reconciliation immediately.

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