An enumerator collects details from the then Tirupur Collector C. Samayamurthy in Tiruppur in 2010. Photo Credit: M. Balaji
In February 1961, I was in primary school. I still remember the census enumerator coming to our house. Fondly called as Pachu Pillai, he was a teacher in our school and a family friend. Since many teachers were on census duty, we (though not the entire school) got a few days off. The next year I waited for the census enumerator to come to our house and I was told that this exercise happens every 10 years.
chilling the boundaries of administration
Recently, this newspaper reported that the freezing of administrative boundaries Which will be effective from July 1, 2023, before the census. Such a stop is necessary because state governments are in the habit of creating new districts and tehsils or reorganizing existing ones. If such changes happen during the census, there will be chaos in the region as to who monitors such areas and some areas are likely to be left out of the census. The house-listing operation takes about a month, but was traditionally carried out at different times between March and September, before the census in different states. It is not clear whether the government plans to synchronize house-listing operations to reduce the lag between the stabilization of boundaries and the actual census enumeration. There is no official statement yet about when the census will take place.
When restrictions were imposed to contain the pandemic in March 2020, several states in the country were on the threshold of starting house-listing operations. Enumerators were appointed and trained, questionnaires were printed, mobile applications were ready for use by interested enumerators, and other logistical arrangements were in place. But the pandemic ensured that the house-listing and, consequently, the population enumeration phase was postponed. Two years have been wasted. There is no reason for further postponement.
The Constitution talks about the use of census data for delimitation of constituencies and for determining the quantum of reservation for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes. However, it has not said what should be the periodicity of the census. The Census Act, 1948, which predates the Constitution, provides the legal background for several activities relating to the census without mentioning anything about its periodicity. It says, “The Central Government may, … announce its intention to take a census …, whenever it considers it necessary or desirable to do so, and thereupon the census shall be taken”. This provision casts the onus on the executive to decide when to conduct the census. This is in contrast to the situation in many countries such as the US and Japan where the constitution or census law mandates census with defined periodicity.
implications of delay
The census alone can provide population data for every village and town in the country. Sample surveys can provide reliable data on social and demographic indicators only at higher geographic levels. Apart from counting the population, the census also provides data on population characteristics, housing and amenities.
Explained | effect of delay in census
We have population estimates at the state and national level that have been fairly accurate in the past. However, it is not possible to obtain reliable estimates for lower geographical levels such as districts and cities or even smaller states and union territories. To answer questions on improvements in literacy and educational levels, economic activity, migration, etc., or the impact of programs such as the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, sample surveys must be relied upon. But these surveys have limitations and cannot be used to find out how many villages have a literacy rate of less than 75% or which tehsils have a low percentage of people with a protected water supply. Such information is important in order to initiate action to rectify the situation.
Census data is used to determine the number of seats reserved for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes in Parliament, state legislatures, local bodies and government services. In the case of Panchayats and Municipal bodies, the reservation of seats for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes is based on their proportion in the population. There is no source other than the census that can provide this information. The delay in the census means that the 2011 census data will continue to be used. In many towns and even panchayats, which have seen rapid changes in their population composition over the past decade, this would mean either too many or too few seats being reserved. The delimitation of parliamentary and assembly constituencies will continue to be based on the 2001 census until the post-2026 census figures are published.
The rural-urban distribution of population is changing rapidly over the years. There is high population growth in urban areas. Some cities are growing faster than others through migration. The rural-urban distribution of population is changing rapidly over the years. There is high population growth in urban areas. Some cities are growing faster than others through migration. For example, the areas under the Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike increased by 49.3% during 2001–11, compared to those under the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai (11.9%), the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (11.7%), and the Corporation of Greater Chennai (7.0%). Had a very low growth rate. The Kolkata Municipal Corporation registered a decline in population during the same period.
The epidemic caused relatively more deaths among adults and the elderly than among children. Its effect on the age distribution in severely affected areas would be interesting as it would give an indirect estimate of the number of deaths. This will either validate or reject various estimates of the number of deaths due to the pandemic.
Census and NPR
The decision to collect data for the National Population Register by Gullak was the most disputed issue on the conduct of the census before the census was postponed. Such controversies negatively affect the census, which is the largest administrative exercise to collect data. Census is a single-shot operation and there is no scope for retake. The stated stand of the central government is that the data in the National Population Register will be updated during the census. Since there has been considerable delay in the census, it would be appropriate to separate the two and separate the census from a politically sensitive issue. This will help in completing the census at the earliest and maintaining the credibility of the data.
The first census after 2026 will be used for delimitation of parliamentary and assembly constituencies and apportionment of parliamentary seats among states. The distribution of seats in Parliament may change due to disparity in growth rates among states. This census is likely to take place in a more politically charged environment. Therefore, it is necessary that this census should be done as soon as possible.
Of. Narayanan Unni is retired from the Indian Statistical Service. He was the Deputy Registrar General and member of the Advisory Committee for Census 2011 and 2021. Email: knunni@gmail.com