Does Wagnar Group’s rebellion mean Russian defeat in Ukraine war?

The Wagner Group, which has declared an armed rebellion against Russia’s military establishments accusing it of attacking its soldiers, has claimed to have captured Army headquarters in two cities and downed three Russian helicopters. The open rebellion from Wagner Mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, who has long been an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has plunged the country into uncertainty, amid a counteroffensive from Ukraine and pushback from the West, with the threat of a brewing civil war.

The rebellion from the Wagner Group isn’t new. It has been brewing for some time. Last month, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, supported by Vladimir Putin, demanded that all mercenaries sign contracts with the ministry – a demand that would have posed greater challenges for Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in his pursuit to establish his personal influence. Russia rebellion LIVE updates

Since his open refusal to obey the ministry’s demand, the Wagner mercenary chief has claimed that ammunition supplies for his troop were cut off, especially during the battles in Bakhmut. He has also accused the defence ministry of attacking a Wagner base with missiles.

“These are someone’s fathers and someone’s sons,” Prigozhin said in a video while pointing to 30 unidentified bodies, adding, “The scum that doesn’t give us ammunition will eat their guts in hell.”

“Wagner ran out of resources to advance in early April, but we’re advancing despite the fact that the enemy’s resources outnumber ours fivefold,” Yevgeny Prigozhin said. “Because of the lack of ammunition, our losses are growing exponentially every day,” he said.

As the verbal attacks continue, the Wagnar chief threatened to pull his forces out of Bakhmut – the battle spearheaded by the Wagner Group for over 200 days.

With no viable solution on the horizon, the Wagner Group has unleashed a counter-offensive. But would Wagnar Group’s active rebellion against the Russian defence leadership means the nation’s defeat in the Ukraine war?

The forces of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the chief of the mercenary, have spent months in the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut and allegedly captured it in May 2023. In the past few months, the Russian winter offensive in Ukraine yielded only two victories in Bakhmut and Soledar, both secured by the Wagner Group.

Research analysts have believed that if Wagner forces are pulled out, it could mean an end to this phase of the Russian offensive in Ukraine as Vladimir Putin heavily depends on his troops for combat in strategic areas.

“If he’s removed from the front line — except if Russia surprisingly has reserves that they did not want to use before — I think we can say it is the end of this phase of the offensive for Russia,” Yohann Michel, a research analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank, was quoted as saying by AP.

A US official has said that there are risks for Russia is Yevgeny Prigozhin is replaced, even though the Wagner Group chief has become a liability for the Russian military. “There is nobody as effective as him,” the official was quoted as saying by Bloomberg.

WHAT IS HAPPENING IN RUSSIA?

Russian Wagner mercenaries were “moving across” the Lipetsk region some 400 kilometres (250 miles) south of Moscow, the governor said Saturday, en route to Moscow after vowing to overthrow Russia’s military leadership.

Earlier in the day, Wagner mercenaries allegedly occupied a Russian Army headquarters in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don. The mercenaries were also seen in Voronezh region. Once closer to Vladimir Putin, Wagner Group chief slammed the President for calling them “traitors” and said Russia will soon have a new President.

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Updated: 24 Jun 2023, 08:30 PM IST