sFortunetellers rarely read the future correctly, especially in the field of geopolitics. However, some forecasters were partially correct in early 2022 when they said that uncertainty and instability would determine the course of world events that year. This year saw an increase in geopolitical challenges and risks, but no one predicted that 2022 would be a year that would put the world to the test.
Russia-Ukraine conflict, which erupted in February 2022, has become a major disruptor of the existing system. In turn, this has resulted in one of the largest population changes in modern times. However, some of it was predictable. By mid-2021, Russia had begun a major build-up around Ukraine and in December 2021, Russia’s Foreign Ministry published a list of new security guarantees it wanted from the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Which didn’t include a promise. To expand the alliance eastwards.
What perhaps could not have been anticipated was the extraordinary display of Ukrainian nationalism and the rapid response of the West, including NATO and the US, in rallying behind Ukraine and expanding military and other forms of cooperation. All that said, even today few experts are able to fully understand what all this predicts or what the future holds.
results of war
Therefore, comparisons with the situation as it existed in 1916, especially during World War I, can be tricky. At the time, the risks of growing both horizontally and vertically were underestimated. It can be useful to reflect on the lessons of the time. In the present case, any escalation of the vertical would mean the use of nuclear weapons. Any increase horizontally would mean opening up new frontiers. As in 1916, there are still many ‘unknowns’. Unexpected events can have dangerous consequences. The shadow of an all-out war is looming.
There can be many other consequences as well. Already, the ‘proxy war’ between the US, Europe and NATO on the one hand and Russia on the other is having major ramifications in the economic sphere. The continued imposition of sanctions on Russia by the West and its allies, barring Russian banks from SWIFT, and freezing Russian foreign assets have all provoked the energy crisis. It is with rising oil prices, Russia is using oil as a weapon. Its full extent is yet to be properly understood, but what it shows is the potential for a widespread fire.
The ripple effects of recent events in Europe are clear. Some of it is happening well off European shores. China-Russia relations are an example of this. China has chosen this time to deepen its strategic ties with Russia. Both countries have said that their “relationship is enjoying the best time in its history”. Furthermore, new alignments are becoming apparent across Asia, in light of the West’s growing concerns over Taiwan.
increase in defense expenditure
As 2023 approaches and volatility looms large, it is also becoming clear that defense spending by almost every country is set to increase significantly – despite the economic stress they all face. Estimated spending on defense worldwide is believed to have crossed $2 trillion in 2022, and is expected to increase significantly in 2023. European countries such as Germany and France have announced substantial increases in defense spending. Given the threats posed by China and North Korea, Japan has already announced that it will increase its defense budget to 2% of its GDP. One of the world leaders in defense spending, India can be expected to follow suit.
The increased defense budget is threatening to change the nature of the defense relationship and, in turn, what is projected as strategic autonomy. New strategic alignments can destabilize the current world order, putting pay to past beliefs and ideas such as non-alignment based on non-compliance of a particular bloc. Therefore, this year could be the year in which many previous ideas about economic, technological and financial autonomy can be changed or discarded. The pace of history will accelerate in 2023, with the war in Ukraine being a major contributing factor.
An example of this could be India’s reliance on Russian military equipment, which has been New Delhi’s mainstay for many years. That could change with Russian equipment performing poorly against the latest Western weaponry in the Ukraine conflict; India may consider looking elsewhere for future defense supplies. India’s current shift from the stated policy of non-alignment to multi-alignment could possibly help in widening the scope of its defense ties. Groups such as the Quad (US, Australia, Japan and India) may gain more prominence in India’s defense architecture going forward, given the rising tensions between India and China. India’s defense ties with France, especially in the field of state-of-the-art defense equipment, are set to grow in 2023.
Due to this many more changes can be expected. Words such as strategic autonomy have already lost their meaning, given the fact that the war in Ukraine has given Europe and other countries the fact that Ukraine, or any other country in Europe for that matter, could face Russian aggression without the US. could not cope. and NATO. This conclusion is likely to determine the thinking of countries in Asia when faced with major “sanctions” such as China.
India’s neighborhood
Going forward, and apart from Europe, China, India and parts of Asia are likely to face major headwinds. For China, the main challenge will be to contain the COVID-19 and manage its economic fallout. As a result, it is unlikely that China will instigate unilateral conflict with its neighbors or adopt a provocative posture this year. Nevertheless, any violation of Taiwan and the First Island Chain will remain a top priority for China.
For India, the changed shape of the international order leaves little room for comfort. The China-Russia deal dents India’s long-standing strategic ties with Russia, which could have far-reaching implications. Meanwhile, the absence of demarcated borders with both China and Pakistan will continue to haunt India. Several areas along the Sino-Indian border will remain live, and recent events in the Yangtse could be repeated, but a major conflict seems unlikely. Pakistan, mired in its internal problems and economic difficulties, is unlikely to become a major threat in 2023. Nevertheless, Pakistan’s provocations and use of terror modules are likely to continue, leading to sporadic attacks in Jammu and Kashmir.
During 2023, India will also find itself surrounded by other problems emerging in South Asia. In Nepal, the new government appears to be leaning towards China and could become a problem. Afghanistan under the Taliban will remain an issue, but more problematic is the growing curve of terrorist activity emanating from there, led by groups such as the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISIS-K). India’s relations with both Sri Lanka and Bangladesh appear to be delicately crafted, and will require skilful diplomacy. However, this year may not see major changes in India’s relations with most countries in West Asia. It could test whether India’s long-standing preference for a non-interventionist strategic culture is paying dividends in its neighbourhood.
All indications are that while terrorism will remain a ubiquitous threat this year, there may not be major terror attacks. Nevertheless, the Islamic State, primarily ISIS-K, has shown signs of revival and its role and activity in Afghanistan is the proverbial tip of the iceberg. Hence, the world may need to be on its guard in 2023.