Speaking at the GLOBSEC Forum in Bratislava, Slovakia, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar argued that Europe needs to break out of the mindset that its problems are the world’s problems but the world’s problems are not Europe’s. This strong push by the minister comes amid persistent efforts by European countries to persuade India to take a tougher stand on its invasion of Ukraine, with suggestions that New Delhi may face similar challenges from China in the future. could. The minister underscored how Europe has often done more to sustain the Russian war effort.
This is the reality facing Europe today as it tries to address one of the most important challenges of its recent history. After decades of declaring that the EU was not in the business of geopolitics, the reality in Europe is coming to the fore that it can only ignore power politics at its own peril. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought this to the fore. In response, Europe has moved forward with a remarkable change in its foreign and security policy that was unimaginable until a few months ago. Russia has been dependent on the unity of the European Union. But, facing one of the most significant challenges since the end of the Cold War, the EU has come together to impose sanctions on Russia’s financial sector, sanction Russian state media, and arm Ukraine. Even Switzerland, a forever neutral state, has decided to freeze assets belonging to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as well as key Russian oligarchs. The European Union, in a show of defiance, decided to proceed with Ukraine’s membership talks upon receipt of a formal application. And despite their longstanding commitment to neutral policies, Finland and Sweden have reevaluated their positions with applications for NATO membership last month.
The most significant development, however, has occurred in Germany, which, acknowledging the instability of its reliance on US security guarantees, has decided to significantly increase its defense spending. Germany will increase its military spending by more than 2% of GDP and pledge €100 billion for its armed services. In a major change from post-World War II policy, it has removed some restrictions on sending German-made weapons to conflict zones, enabling third-party countries to send weapons to Ukraine as well. This is despite Germany’s heavy reliance on Russian gas. The unmistakable message is that history is back in Europe.
But as the Ukraine war intensifies and it turns into a protracted war, there are questions as to how long Europe’s resolve on Ukraine will last. Its internal differences are striking. The UK, Poland and the Baltic countries have spoken of a clear Russian defeat and the need to drive it out of Ukraine, even as the leaders of France, Germany and Italy have been more circumspect. French President Emmanuel Macron has called for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and urged the West “not to succumb to the temptation of humiliation, nor of revenge.” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has engaged Putin to figure out ways to enable Ukraine. Export grain through the Black Sea. The road to a partial EU ban on Russian oil has been a long and difficult one. While the EU has decided to block most Russian oil imports until the end of 2022, the ban will affect two-thirds of oil imports by sea but not pipeline oil after Hungary publicly opposed it. Hungary imports 65% of its oil from Russia through pipelines. This was the sixth set of EU sanctions against Russia since the start of the conflict on 24 February and was the most difficult to negotiate.
For many, these divisions remain Putin’s strongest weapons in a long time. His invasion would have assumed that Europe and the wider West would shy away from a fight. At an early stage, he was proved wrong, as it gave NATO a new lease of life and a sense of purpose. But as the war progresses and the costs continue to plague Europe, he will be hoping that Western solidarity will fall apart. This was highlighted by US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haynes when he suggested last month that Putin is “probably relying on the US and EU to undermine resolve as food shortages, inflation and energy prices worsen.” goes.”
Putin is aware of these divisions within the EU and will seek to exploit them as he reconfigures his war strategy. He has so far had limited success on the battlefield, and instead of weakening European resolve, his actions have only strengthened him. But, as this war continues, the West’s appetite for sustaining the sacrifices needed to maintain support for Ukraine will come under strain. And Putin will certainly try to exploit this vulnerability. He has said with full confidence that the West will not be able to distance itself from Russian oil and gas for many years.
For Europe, these challenges are becoming more and more difficult as the cost of supporting Ukraine will continue to rise. Instead of giving unnecessary advice to other nations on how their foreign policies should be conducted, it has to act on its own policy choices and ensure that it stays true to its vision of a liberal world order.
The world is changing rapidly and Europe has had to evolve accordingly. The old “Empire of Norms” is trying to find its footing in a global environment that is being redefined by new geopolitical conflict and vigor. Europe is no longer the center of gravity of global politics, and this requires a change in the way European policymakers approach. Connect with the wider world.
Harsh V. Pant is Professor of International Relations at King’s College London