At least for 32-40 seats Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and 25-34 seats for the Congress – that’s what pollsters have predicted for Himachal Pradesh, indicating a close contest in the hill state, which goes to polls on November 12. Winning 35 out of 68 seats is necessary to form the government in the state.
According to P-MARQ, BJP may win 34-39 seats, Congress 28-33, while Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) may win 0-1 and others 1-4 seats. The ETG exit poll results predicted 38 seats for BJP, 28 for Congress, 0 for AAP and 2 for others.
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The NewsX exit poll has predicted 32-40 seats for BJP, 27-34 for Congress, 0 for AAP and 1-2 for others. According to BARC, BJP may win 35-40 seats, Congress 20-25, AAP 0-3 and others 1-5. India TV has predicted that BJP may win 35-40, Congress 26-31, AAP 0 and others 0-3.
The voting percentage was 75.6%, and over 55 lakh voters were eligible.
customs in the state
One of the most prominent trends of Himachal is its ‘anti-incumbency’ practice. Since 1985, there has been no repetition of any government in the ‘Dev Bhoomi’.
Himachal Pradesh is a swing state which has been alternating between BJP and Congress for the last three decades. In 1985, the Congress won 58 of the 68 assembly seats, while the BJP got seven. Virbhadra Singh was appointed the Chief Minister of Himachal Pradesh. Five years after the landslide victory, the Congress failed to secure a second term in the 1990 elections with the BJP winning 46 seats. BJP’s Shanta Kumar replaced Virbhadra Singh. However, his tenure could not last for five years as President’s Rule was imposed in 1992 following the Babri demolition.
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When assembly elections were held in 1993, Congress returned to power by winning 52 seats and Virbhadra Singh came to power for a second term as chief minister.
In the 1998 elections, the Congress and the BJP won 31 seats each, but the saffron party formed the government with the help of the Himachal Vikas Congress. Prem Kumar Dhumal was made the Chief Minister.
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The same pattern continued in the 2003 elections when the Congress returned to power by winning 43 seats and Virbhadra Singh was named the chief minister. In the 2007 elections, the BJP again won 41 seats. In 2012, the Congress formed the government with 36 MLAs, while in the 2017 election the BJP won a two-thirds majority, winning 44 seats.
Campaign
This time, the Congress campaigned on the promise of restoring the ‘old pension scheme’ (OPS) and providing Rs 1,500 per month assistance to women once voted to power, while the BJP was counting on the support of women voters and the Prime Minister. Narendra Modi’s charisma is the charisma of reducing his deficit in the state, where till now every government has been claiming anti-incumbency.
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