This trend of revolving door is reflected in all the constituencies of Karnataka.
For the BJP-led Basavaraj Bommai government, Karnataka’s electoral history points to a startling fact – no party has come to power with an absolute majority in the state in four decades.
The trend of revolving door is reflected in all the constituencies of the state. Between 2008 – when constituencies were redrawn as part of the delimitation exercise – and 2018, 84 constituencies have not elected the same party’s candidate in consecutive elections. It is a significant chunk of the state’s 224 seats, and it is these seats that may well determine whether the Congress or the BJP will get a majority in Karnataka.
This is because while larger issues such as reservations for the dominant Lingayat community or the political mobilization of Hindutva voters play a significant role in determining the electoral narrative in many constituencies, it is local and supra-local anti-incumbency that drives the results. . Survey Ahead of the 2018 elections showed that electing an MLA was the voter’s first priority, while party and national leadership were distant considerations.
- 84 constituencies have never voted for the same party since 2008 (when constituency boundaries were redrawn during delimitation).
If the pattern of change in these constituencies continues, the BJP will suffer the most. Of these constituencies, 54 are with the BJP, 19 with the Congress and eight with the Janata Dal (Secular). The challenge for the BJP is to retain as many of these “flip” seats as possible. If the alternate constituencies between Congress or BJP candidates do not break this pattern, the Congress will gain 36 seats.
Of the BJP’s 54 seats, 30 are in Bombay-Karnataka and central Karnataka, a region where the Lingayat community often sets the political scene. The politically powerful community is inclined towards the BJP – largely drawn to the party through its leader BS Yediyurappa. With the move to increase reservation for the Lingayat community, the BJP government has attempted to counter Yeddyurappa’s declining influence within the party.
In other areas, the BJP’s campaign, which hopes to ride on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, may not work effectively. While the Prime Minister’s popularity among voters helps the party win parliamentary elections, PM Modi’s campaigning in assembly elections will not be enough.
A BJP strategist from Udupi district says, “There is a large section of people who are enthusiastic about Narendra Modi, but not our local candidate. Between Congress and BJP in every election
In 2018, the BJP had won all the five seats, but now there are worried faces in the BJP’s Udupi office. This time, he has denied BJP tickets to sitting MLAs in three “revolving door” constituencies. New MLA candidates could mean less local anti-incumbency. Strategists say, “These seats will be won on local issues only.” Therefore, our strategy will be to increase voter engagement with the new MLA candidates.
Safe seats: few and far between
Very few seats can be considered safe for parties, that is, out of 224, only 60 seats are strongholds of any political party, that is, the party has not lost here in three elections. Of these, 27 are for the Congress, 23 for the BJP and 10 for the JD(S).
All 10 JD(S) reserved seats are in southern Karnataka, where the HD Deve Gowda family dominates the numerically strong Vokkaliga community. For the BJP, its bastion extends into coastal Karnataka, where it has an edge because of a strong party structure linked to the Sangh Parivar; in Bombay-Karnataka, where the Lingayat community generally votes for the party; and Bangalore. Barring coastal Karnataka, where it managed to win only three out of 21 seats in 2018, Congress strongholds are roughly evenly spread across the state.
On the other hand, the BJP may be strengthened by the fact that the Congress won 19 seats in the 2018 polls – almost a quarter of their tally in the 2018 polls – by a margin of less than 5,000 votes.
Interestingly, the Bengaluru region, one of the fastest growing cities in India with a reputation built on its dynamism, is also one of the most electorally stable in the country. Here only two seats are flipped between the parties. The 17 constituencies have become strongholds for the BJP and the Congress – strategists of both the parties have assured them of retaining them.
Ron: The Belvedere Seat
Amidst all the hue and cry of the Karnataka elections, the Ron constituency has been an inexhaustible bellwether to guess which way the wind blows. Ron is a simple constituency in the dry arid regions of Bombay-Karnataka that often remains under the radar in the political landscape of the state. However, if electoral history is any indication, this constituency is likely to return the party to power.
Since the formation of the constituency in 1957, the party winning the RON has been the largest political party in the state.
Congress has announced its candidates for this seat. However, the BJP has not fielded Ron in a dozen constituencies where it has found it difficult to take a decision. The sitting BJP MLAs are engaged in an intra-family tussle for party candidature, and hence, campaigning has not started here.