It is Lebanon’s first election since 2018 that plunged it into economic trouble, and 2020 saw a major explosion at the port of Beirut that killed 200 people.
It is Lebanon’s first election since 2018 that plunged it into economic trouble, and 2020 saw a major explosion at the port of Beirut that killed 200 people.
the story So Far: Final result Lebanon’s national election, released on Tuesday, 17 May, showed that the political wing of the Iran-backed Shia militia Hezbollah and its allies lost their majority in Lebanon’s parliament.
Hezbollah won 62 of the 128 seats in parliament along with supporting political factions, as opposed to a majority of 71 in the last election in 2018. field in this election
In a major development, the political newcomer- the anti-incumbency candidate who rose to prominence in the popular movement against the government in October 2019, managed to win over a dozen seats in this election compared to the previous one.
Historical Context of Lebanon
Lebanon is a country in the eastern Mediterranean, bordered by Israel to its south and Syria to its northern and eastern borders. In addition to a permanent Palestinian presence, it has a 1.5 million refugee population from Syria.
It gained independence from the French Mandate in 1943, but there was discontent because the Maronite Christian community had achieved greater development during French rule in contrast to Muslim denominations. The country’s new leaders signed a national agreement to divide power between the major religious groups.
However, Lebanon’s independent government was unable to rule over the various religious groups, leading to the formation of religious militias. In addition, the country had a large population of Palestinian refugees in camps, including fighters from the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). Religious groups were divided again over the Palestinian presence, with Christians against it and leftists and Muslims in support. Religious groups engaged in fierce fighting, which led to the Lebanese Civil War in 1975 that lasted until 1990. Meanwhile, in 1982, Israel invaded southern Lebanon to drive out the PLO and counter the large Syrian military presence. The war also involved Western involvement, including the United States; The United Nations also sent troops to Lebanon.
The war ended with the signing of the Taif Agreement in Saudi Arabia, aimed at facilitating the sovereignty of South Lebanon by the withdrawal of Israeli forces and the placement of Lebanon under Syrian guardianship. The agreement also ordered the dissolution of all militias formed during the war except Hezbollah. According to Lebanon’s post-civil war constitution, the country’s president would be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni, and the parliament speaker, a Shia. The Druze religious community also has a small stake in power in Lebanon.
Who is Hezbollah?
Hezbollah is a Shia Muslim militia based primarily in Lebanon and supported by Iran. It emerged during the Lebanese Civil War with the aim of pulling out the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) from Lebanon and countering Western influences. It was inspired by the Shia democratic leadership of Iran and adopted the name Hezbollah, which means “Party of God”. Meanwhile, Iran, wanting to promote its Shia influence in the Arab world, provided the militia with money, weapons and training.
Hezbollah to advance its cause made many attacks Israel, and on Western civilian and military bases. In 1983, Hezbollah bombed the US embassy in the capital, Beirut, killing more than 60 people. Later that year, it attacked barracks housing American and French troops in Beirut, killing 300 people. The militias continued their attacks on US, Jewish and Israeli targets, and eventually targeted their own country’s administration in 2005. Hezbollah was implicated in the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri in a car bombing in Beirut. 21 other people also died in this attack. Mr Hariri’s assassination sparked the Cedar Revolution in Lebanon, a peaceful civil resistance to drive out Syrian influence and the military from the country and hold free elections.
As for Israel, it withdrew from Lebanon in 2000 but conflict between Hezbollah and Israel continued. In 2006, a month-long war broke out between the two, in which Hezbollah fired thousands of rockets at Israel.
Syrian ally Hezbollah attempted to keep the latter’s forces in the country in 2005 but was unsuccessful. In 2011, when Syria descended into war, Hezbollah joined with Iran and Russia to support the Bashar-al-Assad regime. It sent a large number of fighters and weapons to Syria to fight Sunni rebel groups.
Read | Why could Hezbollah be defeated in Lebanon?
The US has designated Hezbollah as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO), and its armed wing or the entire organization has been blacklisted by several countries. Its current leader is Lebanese cleric Hassan Nasrallah, who took office in 1992 after the assassination of his predecessor, General Secretary Abbas Mousavi, by the IDF. According to estimates by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, as of 2020, Hezbollah has about 20,000 fighters and the same number. Weapons store. According to 2019 US State Department data, Hezbollah receives $700 million worth of weapons and other aid from Iran each year.
The group entered Lebanese politics in 1992 and has held parliament positions since 2005. In the 2018 election, it won 13 seats with allies and 71 seats overall. Currently running a political party, a militia, and a social service network of schools, hospitals, and youth programs, Hezbollah has been described by the Center for Foreign Relations as “a state within a state”.
Political and economic background of the current elections
A lot has happened in Lebanon since the last general election in 2018. Popular protests in 2019 led to the resignation of the country’s Sunni Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri, who had the backing of Saudi Arabia. Spurred on by the economic fallout, mismanagement, power and water shortages, and in particular a $6 monthly tax on WhatsApp users, protesters called for an end to “corruption” and the resignation of the country’s powerful elite.
The movement also sought to change Lebanon’s government system, which reserved administrative powers for major sectarian groups. With various religious powers receiving foreign support – Christians getting support from France, Sunnis from Saudi and Shia and Hezbollah from Iran, protesters believed that the leader needed to address more civil and administrative issues. were more concerned about their friends and patrons abroad in comparison. House. The protesters demanded a new secular, democratic political order.
after that a Devastating explosion at Beirut port In August 2020, one of the largest non-nuclear explosions in history killed more than 200 people and injured nearly 7,000 others. It is estimated to cause a loss of about $ 15 billion.
Prime Minister Hassan Diab, who took office after the 2019 protests, made his announcement amid rising public anger after the explosion. Resignation, Lebanon could not form a government for 13 months the two designated prime ministers—Mustafa Adeeb and Saad Hariri—attempted to claim but ultimately failed. Billionaire and telecom tycoon Najib Mikati became the country’s prime minister in September 2021.
2019 financial crisis Marked by shortages of medicine, food and fuel, and rising crimes, became an almost complete economic collapse. Lebanon’s central bank said it could no longer finance fuel imports at concessional rates, citing low reserves. The lack of fuel led to chaotic scenes across the country. UNICEF warned that millions of Lebanese are facing severe water shortages. The economic crisis pushed more than half the population into poverty, while the value of Lebanon’s currency fell by 90%. While its GDP was $55 billion, the national debt was about 150% of GDP. According to the World Bank, Lebanon’s per capita GDP fell 40% in dollar terms between 2018 and 2020.
In 2021, the Lebanese pound continued its slide, falling to a new low of 15,000 against the US dollar in the black market. Many economists have described Lebanon’s economic collapse as ‘self-inflicted’ due to corruption and mismanagement by its leaders and central bank. Experts say Lebanon’s financial system is similar to a nationally regulated Ponzi scheme, where new money is borrowed to pay existing creditors, which only work until the new money runs out. .
Who contested the election and who won?
In this election, which was voted on Sunday, 15 May, the turnout was reported to be 41% – down from 49% in the previous election.
Despite losing a majority, Hezbollah and its main Shia ally, the Amal group of parliament speaker Nabih Beri, are likely to retain the 27 seats allocated to the sect according to the country’s political system.
Hezbollah’s Christian ally-President Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) has been overtaken by its traditional Christian rival, the Saudi-backed Lebanese military.
Independents, seeking to overhaul the system, won over 12 seats, while also managing to remove several longtime politicians from parliament, including Hezbollah-allied Druze politician Talal Arslan.
Political observers have said the elections are unlikely to bring any breakthrough in the Lebanese crisis. The results have left parliament divided into several camps, none of which have a majority, raising the prospect of political paralysis and tensions that could delay the reforms needed to lift the country out of its devastating economic crisis. .
Meanwhile, Lebanon is in talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) this year to fund an economic recovery plan to lift the country out of the crisis as well as $3 billion in funding over the next several years. However, it comes with the precondition that Lebanon should manage to form a stable government.