As things stand now, India have played two and lost two in Super 4, with one match left to play.
The Super 4s points table looks like this:
Sri Lanka – 4 points after 2 matches
Pakistan – 2 points after 1 match
India – 0 points after 2 matches
Afghanistan – 0 points after 1 match
Sri Lanka, with 4 points and an NRR of +0.351, are sitting at the top of the pile. They have 1 match left to play, which is against Pakistan.
Now, there may be a situation where three teams end up on 4 points each.
This can happen if –
1. Pakistan beat Sri Lanka and went to 4 points
2. Afghanistan beat Pakistan and went to 2 points
3. Afghanistan beat India again and went to 4 points
In this scenario, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Afghanistan will all be on 4 points and NRR will come into picture to determine the two finalists. India however does not feature in this scenario.
The Sri Lankan players are currently in pole position to make it to Sunday’s final.
Meanwhile India currently has a slightly better net run rate than Afghanistan (-0.125 as compared to -0.589) with 0 points.
So will India still be able to finalize? Yes they can. Although this will require a small miracle and of course other consequences for them to go their way.
Here’s a look at what it boils down to for the defending Asia Cup champions:
1. India must first of all hope and pray that Afghanistan beat Pakistan In Sharjah on Wednesday. If Pakistan wins, India will automatically be knocked out, because then the two teams will be on 4 points (Sri Lanka and Pakistan) and India can only get a maximum of 2 points, as they have only one match left to play. .
2. It is done and the dust will not go away, even if Afghanistan beat Pakistan. If this happens then India will have to beat Afghanistan by a huge margin on Thursday.
3. It will take India to 2 points and that too will not be enough. Even if Afghanistan defeats Pakistan and loses to India, Rohit Sharma and co. then hope that Pakistan lost to Sri Lanka In the last Super 4 match on Friday.
If the above 3 desired results actually come India’s way then – Sri Lanka will be on 6 points and will enter the final and India, Pakistan and Afghanistan will all be on 2 points and again NRR will decide the second final.
As things stand, it would be wishful thinking indeed to expect that so many scenarios will follow India’s path.