Baghdad – Thousands of followers of influential populist Shia cleric storm Iraq‘s Parliament, The protesters dispersed as soon as he ordered them.
Mass mobilization and deterrence is a well-worn strategy of Muktada al-Sadr, a business man who has emerged as a formidable force in the jackfruit of Iraq. political Scenes with a nationalist, anti-Iran agenda.
Al-Sadr’s Tehran-backed political rival, former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, stormed parliament on Wednesday after the pro-Iran politician was named as Iraq’s new leader.
A look at how Iraq got to this point:
What was the cause of the political paralysis?
Almost 10 months after national elections were held, Iraq has been unable to form a new government. This is the longest period since the 2003 US invasion that re-established the political system.
The lingering standoff has stabilized an already fragile situation, with no clear path forward. Meanwhile, Iran is working behind the scenes to stitch together a fragmented Shia Muslim elite that has the potential to upset the delicate political balance with the US and usher in a new era of inter-sectarian violence.
That paralysis – driven largely by the personal vendetta of the elite – has turned Iraq’s political system into a high-stakes game of chess with shaky results. Ordinary Iraqis have no choice but to look.
Wednesday’s protest was meant as a warning message to al-Sadr’s opponents that as long as they try to form a government without him, they cannot be ignored.
What steps have these powerful players taken?
Al-Sadr and Al-Maliki are both powerful in their own right.
Although al-Sadr’s coalition won the most seats in the October parliamentary election, political parties failed to reach the two-thirds majority needed to elect a president – a significant step before the selection of a prime minister.
After the talks failed, al-Sadr withdrew his faction from parliament and announced that he was pulling out of talks on forming a government.
Able to summon his followers at the stroke of a finger, al-Sadr could bring the country to a standstill. Expectations of street protests in the capital, Baghdad, have intensified since talks were abandoned.
Al-Maliki heads the Coordination Framework Coalition, a group led by Shia Iran-backed parties. With their main obstacle removed, al-Sadr’s resigned lawmakers were replaced by the Framework. Although the move was legal, it was also provocative, giving the framework the necessary majority in parliament.
The coalition on Monday announced Mohamed al-Sudani, Iraq’s former Minister of Labor and Social Affairs, as its prime ministerial candidate. He is seen by al-Sadr’s loyalists as a man through whom al-Maliki can exercise control.
Al-Maliki himself wanted the leading position, but audio recordings were leaked in which he cursed and criticized al-Sadr and even his own Shia allies. This affected his candidature.
What role does religious fervor play?
In exhorting his followers, al-Sadr used anger at the nomination of al-Sudani, as well as a rise in religious fervor ahead of the important Muslim holiday of Ashura. It marks the assassination of the Prophet Muhammad’s grandson, Imam Hussein, and Shias generally march in thousands to celebrate the holiday, with sentiment running high in the days following.
Wednesday’s protest in Parliament was unique for another reason: riot police did not intervene, and there was little violence.
toby dodgeA fellow Chatham House fellow saw this as a sign that neither side wanted any escalating bloodshed.
“There were three big messages: this is theatre, there was no violence yesterday and this is intentional on both sides,” Dodge said. “It is a fight within the elite; it has nothing to do with the rest of society. This elite has lost its legitimacy in the whole society.”
Even though the al-Maliki and al-Sadr camps may be able to iron out their differences, there is a third big player in Iraqi politics: the Kurds.
The two main Kurdish parties – the KDP and the PUK – are also deeply divided. They would first need to agree on a presidential candidate for Iraq. The KDP previously aligned with al-Sadr, while the PUK belongs to al-Maliki’s framework faction.
How can the fight continue outside Parliament?
Neither the al-Sadr nor the al-Maliki factions can afford to be left out of the political process, as both have much to lose.
Both sides have civil servants trapped in Iraq’s state institutions, deployed to do their bidding when circumstances require it, by stalling decision-making and creating bureaucratic barriers.
Until his eight-year term as prime minister ended in 2014, al-Maliki created an all-encompassing deep state by installing civil servants in key institutions, including the judiciary. Meanwhile, al-Sadr imposed a parallel deepening state with key appointments that peaked in 2018.
Because of this. The Framework knows that even without a presence in parliament, al-Sadr will wield significant power within the state as well as on the street, if al-Maliki’s supporters choose to proceed without the cleric’s agreement.
Both sides have lost some popular support following massive protests against the government in 2019, which was toppled by security forces, killing 600 people and injuring thousands.
That influence was evident in the October 2021 election. Despite winning the largest share of seats, al-Sadr’s vote total was several thousand less than the previous vote. Being present was only 43%.
What is the Iranian role?
Despite the consequences, the Framework has indicated its readiness to proceed with the formation of the government. Legislator Mohamed Sadoun, a member of the Framework, called Wednesday’s protest an attempt at a coup, but said it would not deter the coalition’s efforts.
“We will not allow it. We are in the process of forming the government and we have enough numbers to elect the president and vote for the next government,” he said.
Communications and messages from the coalition suggest it is preparing for instability.
“They don’t expect the streets to be quiet, and they are preparing for it,” said Hamdi Al-Malik, associate fellow at the Washington Institute.
Al-Sudani’s early nomination is a testament to Iran’s efforts to bring together Shia parties in the coalition. It marked a dramatic change since the election, when Iranian-backed parties lost two-thirds of their seats.
Ismail Ghani, the commander of Iran’s paramilitary Quds Force, which is part of the Revolutionary Guard and is answerable only to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has made several visits to Baghdad in recent months.
According to officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to talk about the talks, their mission has been to help the parties stay united and agree on a leading candidate.
According to one of the officials, Ghani was in the capital during Wednesday’s protests and urged the leaders of the faction not to provoke al-Sadr.
Mass mobilization and deterrence is a well-worn strategy of Muktada al-Sadr, a business man who has emerged as a formidable force in the jackfruit of Iraq. political Scenes with a nationalist, anti-Iran agenda.
Al-Sadr’s Tehran-backed political rival, former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, stormed parliament on Wednesday after the pro-Iran politician was named as Iraq’s new leader.
A look at how Iraq got to this point:
What was the cause of the political paralysis?
Almost 10 months after national elections were held, Iraq has been unable to form a new government. This is the longest period since the 2003 US invasion that re-established the political system.
The lingering standoff has stabilized an already fragile situation, with no clear path forward. Meanwhile, Iran is working behind the scenes to stitch together a fragmented Shia Muslim elite that has the potential to upset the delicate political balance with the US and usher in a new era of inter-sectarian violence.
That paralysis – driven largely by the personal vendetta of the elite – has turned Iraq’s political system into a high-stakes game of chess with shaky results. Ordinary Iraqis have no choice but to look.
Wednesday’s protest was meant as a warning message to al-Sadr’s opponents that as long as they try to form a government without him, they cannot be ignored.
What steps have these powerful players taken?
Al-Sadr and Al-Maliki are both powerful in their own right.
Although al-Sadr’s coalition won the most seats in the October parliamentary election, political parties failed to reach the two-thirds majority needed to elect a president – a significant step before the selection of a prime minister.
After the talks failed, al-Sadr withdrew his faction from parliament and announced that he was pulling out of talks on forming a government.
Able to summon his followers at the stroke of a finger, al-Sadr could bring the country to a standstill. Expectations of street protests in the capital, Baghdad, have intensified since talks were abandoned.
Al-Maliki heads the Coordination Framework Coalition, a group led by Shia Iran-backed parties. With their main obstacle removed, al-Sadr’s resigned lawmakers were replaced by the Framework. Although the move was legal, it was also provocative, giving the framework the necessary majority in parliament.
The coalition on Monday announced Mohamed al-Sudani, Iraq’s former Minister of Labor and Social Affairs, as its prime ministerial candidate. He is seen by al-Sadr’s loyalists as a man through whom al-Maliki can exercise control.
Al-Maliki himself wanted the leading position, but audio recordings were leaked in which he cursed and criticized al-Sadr and even his own Shia allies. This affected his candidature.
What role does religious fervor play?
In exhorting his followers, al-Sadr used anger at the nomination of al-Sudani, as well as a rise in religious fervor ahead of the important Muslim holiday of Ashura. It marks the assassination of the Prophet Muhammad’s grandson, Imam Hussein, and Shias generally march in thousands to celebrate the holiday, with sentiment running high in the days following.
Wednesday’s protest in Parliament was unique for another reason: riot police did not intervene, and there was little violence.
toby dodgeA fellow Chatham House fellow saw this as a sign that neither side wanted any escalating bloodshed.
“There were three big messages: this is theatre, there was no violence yesterday and this is intentional on both sides,” Dodge said. “It is a fight within the elite; it has nothing to do with the rest of society. This elite has lost its legitimacy in the whole society.”
Even though the al-Maliki and al-Sadr camps may be able to iron out their differences, there is a third big player in Iraqi politics: the Kurds.
The two main Kurdish parties – the KDP and the PUK – are also deeply divided. They would first need to agree on a presidential candidate for Iraq. The KDP previously aligned with al-Sadr, while the PUK belongs to al-Maliki’s framework faction.
How can the fight continue outside Parliament?
Neither the al-Sadr nor the al-Maliki factions can afford to be left out of the political process, as both have much to lose.
Both sides have civil servants trapped in Iraq’s state institutions, deployed to do their bidding when circumstances require it, by stalling decision-making and creating bureaucratic barriers.
Until his eight-year term as prime minister ended in 2014, al-Maliki created an all-encompassing deep state by installing civil servants in key institutions, including the judiciary. Meanwhile, al-Sadr imposed a parallel deepening state with key appointments that peaked in 2018.
Because of this. The Framework knows that even without a presence in parliament, al-Sadr will wield significant power within the state as well as on the street, if al-Maliki’s supporters choose to proceed without the cleric’s agreement.
Both sides have lost some popular support following massive protests against the government in 2019, which was toppled by security forces, killing 600 people and injuring thousands.
That influence was evident in the October 2021 election. Despite winning the largest share of seats, al-Sadr’s vote total was several thousand less than the previous vote. Being present was only 43%.
What is the Iranian role?
Despite the consequences, the Framework has indicated its readiness to proceed with the formation of the government. Legislator Mohamed Sadoun, a member of the Framework, called Wednesday’s protest an attempt at a coup, but said it would not deter the coalition’s efforts.
“We will not allow it. We are in the process of forming the government and we have enough numbers to elect the president and vote for the next government,” he said.
Communications and messages from the coalition suggest it is preparing for instability.
“They don’t expect the streets to be quiet, and they are preparing for it,” said Hamdi Al-Malik, associate fellow at the Washington Institute.
Al-Sudani’s early nomination is a testament to Iran’s efforts to bring together Shia parties in the coalition. It marked a dramatic change since the election, when Iranian-backed parties lost two-thirds of their seats.
Ismail Ghani, the commander of Iran’s paramilitary Quds Force, which is part of the Revolutionary Guard and is answerable only to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has made several visits to Baghdad in recent months.
According to officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to talk about the talks, their mission has been to help the parties stay united and agree on a leading candidate.
According to one of the officials, Ghani was in the capital during Wednesday’s protests and urged the leaders of the faction not to provoke al-Sadr.