TBILISI: Several dozen Armenian soldiers and an unknown number of Azaris were killed in the deadliest fighting on Tuesday Azerbaijan And Armenia Since the 2020 war.
What are Armenia and Azerbaijan fighting over?
Armenia and Azerbaijan, two former Soviet countries in the South Caucasus, have been fighting for decades over Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous enclave that is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but which by 2020 will be populated and completely populated by ethnic Armenians. was well controlled.
In the Six Weeks’ War that year, Azerbaijan achieved significant territorial gains in and around Nagorno-Karabakh. The fighting was ended by a Russian-brokered armistice, but clashes have occurred from time to time since then, despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers.
In the latest flare-up, Yerevan said several Armenian cities had been attacked overnight. Azerbaijan said it was responding to Armenian provocations.
Why has the fight broken out now?
time is important because Russia In the past it has been the most influential mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Although Kremlin said on Tuesday that the President Vladimir Putin While doing everything possible to stop the bloodshed in the South Caucasus, the war in Ukraine has undermined Moscow’s position as a peace guarantor in the region. This would have encouraged Azerbaijan to pursue more claims.
“I think there is a feeling in Azerbaijan that now is the time to deploy its power, its military advantage, and get the most,” said Laurence Broers, Associate Fellow of Chatham House Think’s Russia and Eurasia Program. tank
Azerbaijan and Armenia also clearly disagree on what a comprehensive peace agreement should look like. While Baku seeks to dissolve Nagorno-Karabakh as a political entity and prevent Yerevan from playing a role there, the Armenian authorities have pledged to ensure the rights of the local Armenians.
what are its dangers?
A full-fledged conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan risks dragging in the big regional powers, Russia and Turkey, and destabilizing the South Caucasus, an important corridor for pipelines carrying oil and gas, at a time when Ukraine was at war before. It has been disrupting the energy supply since.
Moscow has a defense alliance with Armenia and operates a military base there, while Ankara supports its ethnic Turkic kin in Azerbaijan, both politically and militarily.
War between Armenia and Azerbaijan may create a need for more peacekeepers, at a time when Moscow may be unable to provide them.
“I think the risk is to prevent new buffer zones, the establishment of security zones, a kind of fragmentation of at least the southern part of Armenia and a powerlessness among external actors,” Bros said.
What are Armenia and Azerbaijan fighting over?
Armenia and Azerbaijan, two former Soviet countries in the South Caucasus, have been fighting for decades over Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous enclave that is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but which by 2020 will be populated and completely populated by ethnic Armenians. was well controlled.
In the Six Weeks’ War that year, Azerbaijan achieved significant territorial gains in and around Nagorno-Karabakh. The fighting was ended by a Russian-brokered armistice, but clashes have occurred from time to time since then, despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers.
In the latest flare-up, Yerevan said several Armenian cities had been attacked overnight. Azerbaijan said it was responding to Armenian provocations.
Why has the fight broken out now?
time is important because Russia In the past it has been the most influential mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Although Kremlin said on Tuesday that the President Vladimir Putin While doing everything possible to stop the bloodshed in the South Caucasus, the war in Ukraine has undermined Moscow’s position as a peace guarantor in the region. This would have encouraged Azerbaijan to pursue more claims.
“I think there is a feeling in Azerbaijan that now is the time to deploy its power, its military advantage, and get the most,” said Laurence Broers, Associate Fellow of Chatham House Think’s Russia and Eurasia Program. tank
Azerbaijan and Armenia also clearly disagree on what a comprehensive peace agreement should look like. While Baku seeks to dissolve Nagorno-Karabakh as a political entity and prevent Yerevan from playing a role there, the Armenian authorities have pledged to ensure the rights of the local Armenians.
what are its dangers?
A full-fledged conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan risks dragging in the big regional powers, Russia and Turkey, and destabilizing the South Caucasus, an important corridor for pipelines carrying oil and gas, at a time when Ukraine was at war before. It has been disrupting the energy supply since.
Moscow has a defense alliance with Armenia and operates a military base there, while Ankara supports its ethnic Turkic kin in Azerbaijan, both politically and militarily.
War between Armenia and Azerbaijan may create a need for more peacekeepers, at a time when Moscow may be unable to provide them.
“I think the risk is to prevent new buffer zones, the establishment of security zones, a kind of fragmentation of at least the southern part of Armenia and a powerlessness among external actors,” Bros said.