Fears of Iran, US shrinking role in Middle East push rivals closer together

The first interaction between the leaders of Israel and the United Arab Emirates in Abu Dhabi since the two countries established diplomatic ties last year saw Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan speak about themselves personally. First chance to coordinate. shared regional rival, Iran, and its expanding nuclear program.

It also marked an opportunity for the two leaders to discuss the emerging trade ties between their countries, which at the end of last year normalized relations after 50 years of formal diplomatic relations. The deal led to agreements with several other Arab countries, known as the Abrahamic Accords, and generated billions of dollars in new business.

On Monday, Mr. Bennett and Sheikh Mohamed spent more than four hours in talks with extensive delegations and a two-and-a-half-hour face-to-face meeting at the prince’s palace.

A joint statement called Mr. Bennett’s visit “another milestone in the development of warm relations and close partnership between the two countries” and noted that various economic and civil issues were discussed.

Mr. Bennett invited Sheikh Mohammed to come to Israel and he accepted, according to the office of the Israeli leader. The office said they also discussed a free trade agreement next year.

The two countries have already increased registered bilateral trade by 10 times year-on-year to $874.5 million in the first 10 months of 2021. The amount does not reflect some of the largest deals signed between Israel and the UAE, including the $1 billion sale of a stake by Israel’s Delek Drilling in its Tamar gas field to Emirati wealth fund Mubadala.

Monday’s meeting follows Sheikh Mohamed’s visit to Turkey late last month to begin ties with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a supporter of Islamic political movements that the UAE sees as a national-security threat.

Separately, Qatar is in talks for a one-time unimaginable meeting between Saudi Arabia and Turkey between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Mr. Erdogan, people familiar with the efforts said, indicating a possible captive in a rift that has crippled the region. divided over the years. Qatari authorities unsuccessfully tried to bring two men together in Doha last week after they both passed away within a day of each other, and officials are looking for a suitable time and place in the coming weeks, the people said. .

Middle East diplomats say they are talking to rivals they have kept away from for years amid uncertainty over the Biden administration’s commitment to the region after an abrupt withdrawal from Afghanistan and a foreign-policy pivot towards China . After an alleged Iranian drone strike on two Saudi oil installations in 2019 that went largely unanswered and reduced the US role in Iraq, regional officials see Washington’s appetite for involvement in the region dwindling. Huh.

“There is a question of what is the policy of Americans in the Middle East and the perceived image is that they want to get the hell out of here, and they say as much,” said Joel Guzanski, a senior research fellow focused on Persian Tel Aviv. In Gulf politics and security at the National Institute for Security Studies.

Gulf and Israeli officials have watched with unease as the US, Russia, China and the European Union held talks with Iran in Vienna to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, which lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange for the extent of its nuclear program. lamps. Little progress has been made in two weeks, and Middle East officials fear talks could fail and lead to a regional crisis with Tehran.

“All the players—Israel, the United Arab Emirates—everyone is jockeying for position,” said Joshua Teitelbaum, a professor of Middle Eastern studies at Bar Ilan University outside Tel Aviv. “There’s a new administration with a policy we’re still anticipating. And with Iran on the threshold of acquiring a nuclear weapon, it’s forcing everyone to renew the relationship.”

With renewed talks in the Middle East, Israel remains at a disadvantage. Despite the Abrahamic Agreement, it has few and mostly informal contacts in the rest of the Persian Gulf, making it more dependent on the United Arab Emirates, despite a secret desert meeting last year between Prince Mohammed and the then prime minister, Israel. Has no formal relationship with Saudi Arabia. Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Observers said the emirate sees a partnership with Israel, which has advocated its right to attack Iranian nuclear targets with advanced Israeli weapons, as a way to potentially boost its security credentials. Is. But Emirati are also concerned that any disorganized military action could spark a wider conflict.

Sanam Vakil, deputy director of the Middle East North Africa Program at Chatham House, said: “In this new phase, the Gulf states are trying to do differently, trying to keep their ties with the controversial powers closer and reduce Iran.” are.”

The renewed dialogue is also providing new impetus towards ending the conflicts that arose after the Arab Spring uprising. Saudi Arabia is reducing its military footprint in Yemen as the kingdom lost a war there to Houthi rebels aligned with Iran.

Some Arab states have begun pushing the idea of ​​recognizing the legitimacy of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, hoping to end nearly a decade of brutal fighting. The UAE foreign minister met Mr Assad in Damascus last month, and Syria could attend the Arab League summit in Algeria in March for the first time since membership was suspended in 2011.

At the same time, the Saudis have held several rounds of talks this year with Iran, which Iraq is mediating, aimed at restoring diplomatic relations for the first time in six years. Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE’s National Security Advisor, brother of Sheikh Mohammed, traveled to Tehran this month, where he met Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi and invited him to visit the United Arab Emirates.

Analysts say the various dialogues are not expected to improve relations with the rival, but to restore channels of communication in the event of a breakdown of nuclear talks.

For Mr. Erdogan and Prince Mohammed, a meeting provides an opportunity behind them to address the problems that have poisoned relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Among them: the 2018 murder of author Jamal Khashoggi by a team of Saudi government operatives at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Prince Mohammed wants a promise that Mr. Erdogan will never mention Mr. Khashoggi’s death and dominates the Turkish media. According to Saudi and Qatari authorities, stop dredging the subject.

For Mr. Erdogan, calculus may be more about money than geopolitics. Turkey is in the grip of a currency crisis, it is looking for an economic lifeline.