The industry body cautioned that a possible jump in the movement of people during Diwali could lead to a resurgence in the number of COVID-19 cases.
FICCI on Thursday said India’s GDP is expected to grow at 9.1% in 2021-22, as economic recovery, after the second wave of the pandemic, is gaining ground.
FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey also said that the current festive season will support this momentum.
However, the industry body cautioned that a possible spurt in the movement of people during Diwali could lead to a resurgence in the number of COVID-19 cases.
“The latest round of FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey has projected annual average GDP growth for 2021-22 at 9.1 per cent. This marks a marginal improvement from the growth estimate of 9 per cent recorded in the previous survey round (July 2021). It is,” Chambers said.
The growth prospects of the agriculture sector are expected to remain buoyant due to the intensification of monsoon rains in the latter part of the season and subsequent increase in kharif area.
The survey was conducted in September 2021 and received responses from leading economists representing industry, banking and financial services sector.
It said, “The GDP figures for the second quarter and the coming festive season will give a clear idea of where we are headed on the path of recovery and the demand situation.
With regard to going back to the process of normalization, the survey said, it was largely felt that the Reserve Bank may indicate a change of stance from liberal to neutral in the February 2022 policy meeting.
“However, a hike in the repo rate seems imminent only in the next financial year (April 2022). Also, the path towards positive real interest rates is expected to be a staggered one. Much will be contingent on the build-up in domestic price levels and the extent of tapering by the Federal Reserve,” it said.
.