French format: on Macron’s shuttle diplomacy between Russia and Ukraine

French President Emmanuel Macron’s shuttle diplomacy between Russia and Ukraine is one of the most significant interventions in the crisis since tensions escalated in Eastern Europe. Mr Macron, who held talks with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev, has said both sides are committed to the Minsk Agreement (2014-15), which aims to end violence between Ukraine and Russia. formerly supported separatists; Mr Putin assured them that Russia would not escalate the crisis. Overall, these statements provide a path towards de-escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions. Moscow has issued wide-ranging demands, including the withdrawal of NATO from Eastern Europe, which the West has rejected. But Russia’s main concerns are NATO-Ukraine cooperation and a growing Western presence in the Black Sea. The US had earlier offered talks to mutually reduce military exercises in the eastern part of Europe. And what Mr. Macron is trying to do now through the Normandy format talks (including France, Germany, Russia, Ukraine) is to have a Moscow-Kiev dialogue based on the Minsk Protocol, which is, in principle, accepted by both sides. it was done. ,

The crisis has also exposed differences within the Western bloc over how to deal with Russia. While the Biden administration has threatened to shut down Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline in the event of a Russian invasion, the German leadership has been less specific in its response. Germany has blocked the supply of arms to Ukraine to Estonia, a minor NATO member that shares a border with Russia. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who met Mr Putin in the Kremlin earlier this month, has said Russia’s demands were reasonable. Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoan, who visited Ukraine last week, has offered to host a peace summit. And now, Mr Macron, who says the West “must respect Russia”, has already moved on. These varied responses show that Europe has little appetite for conflict with Russia, despite Joe Biden’s claim of unity. As a continent that experienced two devastating World Wars and a Cold War, Europe understands practical realism. But it needs to be seen whether France and Germany have the diplomatic strength to calm Russian nerves without compromising on the continent’s security. A starting point could be reviving the Minsk process. The agreement calls for a general amnesty for the rebels, a constitutional amendment to give more autonomy to the detached regions in eastern Ukraine, and the handing over of Ukraine’s borders to its military. No clause of the Agreement has been enforced. If Normandy draft talks can be convened and Russia and Ukraine take steps to revive the agreement, it will be a diplomatic success.