This will be the fastest expansion since 1988-89, when the economy expanded by 9.6% and comes on the back of a 7.3% contraction during the previous financial year when growth collapsed due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. It will also be the fastest growth under the new method, for which data is available for 17 years. The data showed that almost all sectors except ‘trade, hotels, transport, communication and broadcasting services’ have reached pre-pandemic levels.
This projected growth rate will also help India retain its fastest growing major economy tag. The economy has recovered due to a 24.4% contraction due to the strict nationwide lockdown imposed to contain the spread of coronavirus during April-June 2020.
Nominal GDP growth including inflation is estimated at 17.6% as per the advance estimates released by National Statistics Office ,NSO) on Friday. According to SBI research, this is the second highest nominal growth since the 19.9% nominal growth in 2010-11 and 17.1% in 2006-07. The size of the economy is estimated at $3.1 trillion based on current prices in dollar terms.
NSO’s GDP marginally lower than estimates reserve Bank of India(RBI) launch. The central bank had projected the economy to grow further by 9.5% International Monetary Fund (IMF) also expects its expansion along the same lines. The government had budgeted for double-digit growth rate during the current financial year.
but led by the third wave omicron The variant has cast a shadow over the strength of growth and recovery. Many economists have lowered their growth projections for the full year and expect restrictions being imposed by states to impact businesses and overall growth. The NSO also cautioned that the 9.2% GDP growth forecast in the first advance estimates does not take into account a number of factors and may result in revisions due to the impact of government measures.
“However, these are preliminary estimates for 2021-22. The actual performance of various indicators, actual tax collection and expenditure on subsidies in the subsequent months, new relief measures for weaker sections (such as providing free food grains which have now been extended is) by March 2022) and other measures, if any, taken by the government to contain the spread of COVID-19, will put a halt to the subsequent revision of these estimates,” the NSO said. The Indian economy has staged a sharp recovery after the second wave and several indicators had reached their pre-pandemic levels aided by measures taken by the government and the RBI.
www.toi.in . full report on
,