Glasgow: Global CO2 emissions, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels, are set to return to levels seen before 2021. covid The pandemic, according to an assessment published Thursday, which serves as a “reality check” for vague decarbonization pledges at a UN climate summit.
Overall, CO2 pollution this year will be just shy of the record set in 2019, according to the Global Carbon Project Consortium’s annual report, released at the COP26 climate summit as nearly 200 nations face the threat of catastrophic warming. Huh.
Emissions from gas and highly polluting coal will rise higher this year than in 2020, when shutdowns to slow the spread of the pandemic slowed economies dramatically.
Limiting the rise in global temperature to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels – according to the Paris Agreement – would limit mortality and damage, but achieving that goal would require cutting carbon emissions by almost half by 2030 and net zero by 2050. will need to do. , the United Nations Climate Science Authority warned.
“This report is a reality check,” co-authored Corinne Le QuereA professor of climate change science at Britain’s University of East Anglia told AFP.
“It shows what’s happening in the real world when we’re here in Glasgow talking about tackling climate change.”
Waiting for the summit – new reports There is bad news for the 13-day COP26 meeting, where a diplomatic brawl saw the United States accuse China and Russia of failing to advance their ambitions.
China will account for 31% of global emissions this year, when its economy comes out of the economic downturn, compared to others.
The study, in the journal Earth System Science Data, said carbon pollution from oil is well below 2019 levels, but the transportation and aviation sectors could rise as the pandemic recovers from disruptions.
Taken together, the findings mean that future C02 emissions could eclipse the record 40 billion tonnes set in 2019, which some have predicted – and many expect – will be a peak.
“We cannot rule out a more holistic growth of emissions in 2022 as the transport sector continues to improve,” Le Querre said. “We are bound to have ups and downs over the next few years.”
The latest figures are in line with the most recent figures international energy agency (IEA) has projected that emissions from energy will reach an all-time high in 2023, with “no clear peak in sight”.
“Maybe we will start talking about peak emissions in 2023 or 2024,” said Glen Peters, research director at the Center for International Climate Research in Oslo and co-author of the report.
china boom
Looking at the national level, the report found a comeback pre-covid They are among the top four carbon pollutants in the world, accounting for 60 percent of global CO2 emissions.
In China – which has pledged to peak its emissions by 2030 and reach net-zero by 2060 – economic growth driven by government stimulus will increase emissions by 5.5% this year compared to 2019, last year from Covid not impressed.
“The rebound in China was strong,” Peters said. “It looks like China is in a strong growth phase again.”
India, the world’s second emerging giant, is on track for a similar percentage increase in carbon pollution, and will account for seven percent of the total this year.
This year emissions in the US and the EU will fall by 3.7 and 4.2%, respectively, and their share of global emissions will be 14 and 7%.
The report clarified that the wild card that could determine how quickly the world could turn emissions downward.
“Mostly it’s about the coal now,” Le Querre said. “That’s where the big uncertainties lie.”
Very little of the trillions of dollars was earmarked for green growth for the post-pandemic recovery, a trend that continues, she said.
‘It is possible’
“Economic incentives are now about increasing consumption, and that’s really moving industry, production and coal forward,” Le Querre said.
Worldwide, decarbonization – primarily the switch from fossil fuels to renewables – continues to outpace energy demand.
But the report highlighted some positive signs.
Twenty-three countries, including the US, Japan, Germany, France and the UK, which have accounted for a quarter of global emissions over the past decade, enjoyed strong economic growth as well as significant declines in emissions.
But the finding makes clear just how difficult the goals of the Paris Agreement are.
Peter NortonThe director of the International Institute for Environment and Development said the report shows that at current emissions levels the world will emit enough to break the 1.5C target within 11 years.
“This is in many ways worse than it seems,” he said on Twitter.
Overall, CO2 pollution this year will be just shy of the record set in 2019, according to the Global Carbon Project Consortium’s annual report, released at the COP26 climate summit as nearly 200 nations face the threat of catastrophic warming. Huh.
Emissions from gas and highly polluting coal will rise higher this year than in 2020, when shutdowns to slow the spread of the pandemic slowed economies dramatically.
Limiting the rise in global temperature to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels – according to the Paris Agreement – would limit mortality and damage, but achieving that goal would require cutting carbon emissions by almost half by 2030 and net zero by 2050. will need to do. , the United Nations Climate Science Authority warned.
“This report is a reality check,” co-authored Corinne Le QuereA professor of climate change science at Britain’s University of East Anglia told AFP.
“It shows what’s happening in the real world when we’re here in Glasgow talking about tackling climate change.”
Waiting for the summit – new reports There is bad news for the 13-day COP26 meeting, where a diplomatic brawl saw the United States accuse China and Russia of failing to advance their ambitions.
China will account for 31% of global emissions this year, when its economy comes out of the economic downturn, compared to others.
The study, in the journal Earth System Science Data, said carbon pollution from oil is well below 2019 levels, but the transportation and aviation sectors could rise as the pandemic recovers from disruptions.
Taken together, the findings mean that future C02 emissions could eclipse the record 40 billion tonnes set in 2019, which some have predicted – and many expect – will be a peak.
“We cannot rule out a more holistic growth of emissions in 2022 as the transport sector continues to improve,” Le Querre said. “We are bound to have ups and downs over the next few years.”
The latest figures are in line with the most recent figures international energy agency (IEA) has projected that emissions from energy will reach an all-time high in 2023, with “no clear peak in sight”.
“Maybe we will start talking about peak emissions in 2023 or 2024,” said Glen Peters, research director at the Center for International Climate Research in Oslo and co-author of the report.
china boom
Looking at the national level, the report found a comeback pre-covid They are among the top four carbon pollutants in the world, accounting for 60 percent of global CO2 emissions.
In China – which has pledged to peak its emissions by 2030 and reach net-zero by 2060 – economic growth driven by government stimulus will increase emissions by 5.5% this year compared to 2019, last year from Covid not impressed.
“The rebound in China was strong,” Peters said. “It looks like China is in a strong growth phase again.”
India, the world’s second emerging giant, is on track for a similar percentage increase in carbon pollution, and will account for seven percent of the total this year.
This year emissions in the US and the EU will fall by 3.7 and 4.2%, respectively, and their share of global emissions will be 14 and 7%.
The report clarified that the wild card that could determine how quickly the world could turn emissions downward.
“Mostly it’s about the coal now,” Le Querre said. “That’s where the big uncertainties lie.”
Very little of the trillions of dollars was earmarked for green growth for the post-pandemic recovery, a trend that continues, she said.
‘It is possible’
“Economic incentives are now about increasing consumption, and that’s really moving industry, production and coal forward,” Le Querre said.
Worldwide, decarbonization – primarily the switch from fossil fuels to renewables – continues to outpace energy demand.
But the report highlighted some positive signs.
Twenty-three countries, including the US, Japan, Germany, France and the UK, which have accounted for a quarter of global emissions over the past decade, enjoyed strong economic growth as well as significant declines in emissions.
But the finding makes clear just how difficult the goals of the Paris Agreement are.
Peter NortonThe director of the International Institute for Environment and Development said the report shows that at current emissions levels the world will emit enough to break the 1.5C target within 11 years.
“This is in many ways worse than it seems,” he said on Twitter.
.