Global energy crisis a historic turning point for clean fuel: IEA

The global energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing profound and long-lasting changes that have the potential to accelerate the transition to a more sustainable and secure energy system, the IEA report said.

“Not only for some time, but in the coming decades, energy markets and policies have changed as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol.

“The world of energy is changing dramatically before our eyes. Government responses around the world promise to make this a historic and definitive turning point toward a cleaner, more affordable and more secure energy system,” Birol said.

“Today’s energy crisis is delivering a shock of unprecedented detail and complexity. The biggest shocks have been felt in markets for natural gas, coal and electricity – with significant turmoil in oil markets as well, with IEA member states issuing two oil stocks of unique scale to avoid even more severe disruptions. the wanted.

“With relentless geopolitical and economic concerns, energy markets remain extremely vulnerable, and the crisis is a reminder of the fragility and instability of the current global energy system.”

The analysis said that “little evidence” has been found to support claims that climate policies and net-zero commitments contributed to the rise in energy prices.

Global clean energy investment is set to grow to more than $2 trillion annually by 2030, half of the current levels, while “international energy markets undergo a deep restructuring in the 2020s as countries move towards Russia-Europe (energy)” countries. Let the breakdown adjust flow, the IEA said.

On Russia, the IEA said the country, which is the world’s largest fossil fuel exporter, would never gain the share of the global energy supply mix it had before its invasion of Ukraine.

The IEA said in a report that Russia’s internationally traded energy supply will fall to 13 percent by 2030, from about 20 percent in 2021.

For the first time, there is a global demand for each fossil fuel displaying a peak or plateau in the WEO scenario based on today’s prevailing policy settings.

In this scenario, coal use falls back over the next few years, demand for natural gas reaches a plateau by the end of the decade, and rising sales of electric vehicles (EVs) mean oil demand levels will rise by 2030. Closes in the middle of the decade before decreasing slightly. By the middle of the century, it said.

“This means that aggregate demand for fossil fuels is declining steadily from an annual average equivalent to the lifetime output of a large oil field from mid-2020 to 2050,” it added.

According to the report, under current policies, the share of fossil fuels in the global energy mix will drop from about 80 percent today to more than 60 percent by mid-century.

But this pace of change is not fast enough to avert dangerous climate change. The IEA predicts that under current policies, along with other assessments released by the United Nations this week, the world is poised for about 2.5°C of warming by the end of the century. Scientists warn that this level of warming poses a serious threat to the stability of ecosystems.

However, if countries do more to cut emissions, the pace of this transition could accelerate. Under a scenario where countries meet all their climate goals in full and on time, demand for coal, oil and gas is expected to peak by 2050 before gradually falling through 2030. Under this scenario, the climate-induced temperature rise occurs above 1.7 °C. pre-industrial level.