Gujarat Elections: All eyes on Patidar votes, BJP or AAP?

While political analysts believe that a majority of Patidars will vote for the Bharatiya Janata Party this time, former quota stir leaders believe that many young voters from the community are open to other options like the new entrant – the Aam Aadmi Party.

In the 2017 assembly elections, despite setting an ambitious target of winning 150 out of 182 seats, the BJP barely managed to retain its stronghold with 99 seats. It is believed that due to the whirlwind campaign by hardik patel Against the BJP, the opposition Congress emerged victorious on 77 seats.

According to community estimates, there are around 40 seats in Gujarat where Patidar voters play a decisive role. Some community leaders claim that they dominate 50 seats. Although Patels constitute about 18 percent of Gujarat’s population, 44 Patidar MLAs were elected in 2017, indicating their influence in Gujarat politics.

Some seats with a high concentration of Patidar voters in the Saurashtra region are Morbi, Tankara, Gondal, Dhoraji, Amreli, Savarkundla, Jetpur, Rajkot East, Rajkot West and Rajkot South.

While Vijapur, Visnagar, Mehsana and Unjha seats in north Gujarat have a sizeable number of Patidar voters, Ahmedabad city has at least five such seats – Ghatlodia, Sabarmati, Maninagar, Nikol and Naroda. In South Gujarat, several seats in Surat city are considered Patidar strongholds, including Varachha, Kamrej and Katargam.

Many believe it was the Patidar quota agitation and the resulting anger that led to the BJP’s defeat in several Patidar-dominated seats in 2017, such as Unjha in Mehsana district as well as Morbi and Tankara seats in the Saurashtra region.

For the upcoming elections, the BJP has given tickets to 41 Patidars, one more than the Congress’ tally. AAP has also given tickets to a large number of Patidars.

According to political analyst Ravindra Trivedi, chances are high that the community will bury the past and support the BJP this time.

“2022 election is different from 2017, when quota agitation was the main issue of election. This time there is no effect of agitation, which will go in favor of BJP. Patidars will vote keeping three things in mind. BJP and Congress on one seat Patidar candidates have been put up by both, Patel voters will go with the party they are traditionally associated with,” Trivedi said.

“In about 30 seats both the BJP and the Congress have given tickets to Patidars. If the candidate is from any other caste against a Patidar candidate, most likely the Patel voters will vote for one from their community, even if it whatever caste he belongs to. The party he represents,” he said.

One of the main reason being exposed in front of BJP Patidars Seeking their support is the announcement that Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel, who is from the community, will hold the top post if the party remains in power.

“The BJP has played its Patidar card by making Bhupendra Patel the CM last year and has announced that he will continue in the post even after the elections. Hence, many Patidars are wondering if they would like to see a Patidar as the next CM. Trivedi said, he should support the BJP this time.

He said that two most prominent Patidar organizations – Sidsar Umiya Dham of Kadva Patidars and Khodaldham of Leuva Patels also seem to be supporting the saffron party this time.

BJP has given ticket to Khodaldham’s trustee Ramesh Tilala from Rajkot South seat. Besides this, PM Modi’s meeting with Khodaldham trustees in Delhi recently also gave a positive message to the community. Patidar Congress candidates may get Patel votes because of their personal rapport. But BJP will be his first choice, if he has to choose between BJP, Congress or even AAP.

Before the elections, the Sidsar Umiyadham Trust, which represents the Kadva Patidar sect in Jamnagar, demanded that the BJP give tickets to at least 50 Patidars.

According to Jairam Patel, president of the trust, Patidars constitute only 18 per cent of Gujarat’s population, but wield more influence than numbers.

Patel said, “Patidars have been with the BJP for a long time and about 85 per cent of them will support it this time. The recent Supreme Court verdict legalizing the EWS quota will also help the party attract Patidar votes.”

But the Congress is still hopeful of getting support from the Patels.

“Not just Patidars, we are sure of getting support from all communities because farmers are suffering, and price rise, unemployment, exorbitant school fees, poor healthcare affect everyone. Atrocities should not be forgotten either. Gujarat Congress spokesperson Manish Doshi said.

Gujarat BJP spokesperson Kishor Makwana said, “Patidars have always been with the BJP. With their support, the BJP will break all previous records and form the government after the elections. Both AAP and Congress are not in the picture.”

Significantly, Hardik Patel, the face of the reservation movement, who had earlier joined the Congress, is now contesting from Viramgam seat on a BJP ticket. Three other leaders from Kota – Alpesh Kathiria, Gopal Italia and Dharmic Malviya – are now with AAP and are contesting from Patidar-dominated Varachha, Katargam and Olpad seats respectively in Surat.

Another former Kota leader Reshma Patel is also in electoral politics and recently joined AAP after resigning from NCP. Convenor of Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti Dinesh Bambhania claimed that young Patel voters may explore new options and choose AAP this time.

“Except for 2017, 90 per cent Patidars have been strongly behind BJP from the beginning. I think young Patidar voters are now looking at AAP as an alternative this time. I think Patidars will return to BJP this time. Will come, but their numbers will not be significant.” ,” They said.

The text of this story is published from a wire agency feed without any modification. Only the headline has been changed.