At around eight per cent of Gujarat’s population, Dalits are not a numerically dominant community in the state, but their votes in the upcoming assembly elections are likely to be split between the ruling BJP, the opposition Congress and the newly entrenched Aam Aadmi Party. Observers all political parties are trying their best to woo the community, as apart from the 13 seats reserved for Scheduled Castes (out of a total of 182 in the state), Dalit voters may tilt their scales in a few dozen other seats as well, they believe. is.
While the BJP says it is confident that Dalits will vote for it in the state assembly elections due later this year, the Congress says it is focusing on seats with 10 per cent or more Dalit population. The BJP has secured a majority of the 13 seats reserved for Scheduled Castes since 1995. In 2007 and 2012, it had won 11 and 10 of these seats, respectively, while the Congress won two and three seats.
But in 2017 the BJP faltered and managed to win only seven seats, while the Congress got five. One seat was won by a Congress-backed Independent. One of the Congress MLAs, Praveen Maru from Gadda resigned in 2020 and joined the BJP in 2022. BJP’s Atmaram Parmar won the by-election in the constituency.
Sociologist Gaurang Jani claimed that Dalits in Gujarat are a confused community as far as political affiliations are concerned. They are not numerically as large as many other communities and are further divided into three sub-castes – Vankar, Rohit and Valimki. “They are divided among themselves, Vankar is being attracted by the BJP, which is the highest in stratification. They are more outspoken and urban. But Valmikis, who are mainly scavengers, are divided,” claimed Jani, a retired professor at Gujarat University.
He said that three political parties and three caste classes would divide the Dalit vote. “This will reduce their political importance, especially when the community lacks a strong leader,” he said.
Jani said that with the newly entrant AAP claiming the legacy of Dr BR Ambedkar, the vote of the community can be divided in three ways. “The new generation of the community is confused… the voting pattern of the youth is going to be divided among the three parties,” he said. Partition will neither benefit any one political party nor the community.
BJP is in power for 27 years. In all the elections held in these 27 years, Dalits have equally supported both the BJP and the Congress. BJP has also taken several initiatives to attract Dalits. He said that while in power, Dalit leaders were given posts in various bodies. “Dalits have an old association with the BJP,” Jani said. The Congress, on the other hand, could not hold on to the Dalit community as it was out of power for a long time, he said. “Even in the opposition, it failed to raise their issues as it was expected to do. Many Dalit leaders of Congress switched to BJP. The party’s Kham (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi, Muslim) strategy could not work further in the form of polarization on the marginalized Dalits of Hindutva,” Jani said.
Dalits constitute only eight per cent of the state’s population. They are generally an absolute minority in the villages. He said that even in urban areas, their number is not much in any particular pocket. “Moreover, AAP’s strategy of attracting Dalits by sidelining Mahatma Gandhi and claiming the legacy of Babasaheb Ambedkar makes it attractive to the community,” he said.
Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP has already promised several ‘guarantees’ to the people of the state if it comes to power. “I think the voting pattern of Dalit youth will be divided into three parties. It will not go to any one political party. I don’t know which political party will benefit, but it will not benefit Dalits. Meanwhile, BJP spokesperson Yagnesh Dave said that apart from publicizing the schemes of the state and central governments, which are meant for the community, they are also involving religious heads of holy places belonging to the Dalit community like Jhanjharka and Rosra, “In 2017 also, the Dalit community supported the BJP and we are confident that it will give us the same support in 2022 as well.
The Congress aims to increase Dalit turnout, especially in unreserved seats where the community has a population of 10 per cent or more. AAP is hopeful that its ‘guarantees’ such as 300 units of free electricity per month, unemployment allowance and Rs 1,000 allowance for women will attract Dalits from other communities as well. Political observers said his deliberate attempts to claim Ambedkar’s legacy would also play a role.
Congress’ Scheduled Castes department chairman Hitendra Pithadia said the party was paying special attention to seats with 10 per cent or more Dalit population. “This is perhaps for the first time that the Congress is not restricting itself to reserved constituencies. We have identified around 40 constituencies where there are more than 10 per cent Dalit voters.
He said the Congress had won 19 out of these 40 seats in 2017 and lost some seats by a small margin. “We want Dalits to come out strongly and vote for the Congress in these constituencies. If that happens we can win. We will try and ensure that we field Dalit candidates on unreserved seats as well.
The Congress had fielded Dalit candidates in the unreserved seat of Sayajiganj in Vadodara city in 2017 and Limbayat in Surat city in 2012. He had to face defeat in both the places. Ahead of the 2017 elections, Una in Gir Somnath district had witnessed protests against the ruling BJP over the flogging of members of the Dalit community by cow vigilantes.
While attacks and discrimination on Dalits by members of the dominant upper castes and other backward classes are not uncommon in rural Gujarat, the Una incident provided a major issue for the Congress to turn the community on its side. Dalit activist Jignesh Mevani, who led the protests after the Una incident, won the 2017 election from the Vadgam seat, reserved for Scheduled Caste candidates, with the support of the Congress.
Mevani had recently announced that he would contest the 2022 elections on a Congress ticket.
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