Going into year number 10 will be its most challenging, with Modi trying to repeat what only Jawaharlal Nehru could do as the prime minister — bring back his government continuously for a third term.
The attempts at ‘opposition unity’ and the election losses in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh have emerged as fresh challenges. But the BJP is sure it has the electoral formula to reign supreme in 2024 — a three-pillar approach of nationalism, Hindutva, and a Modi-led model of governance and welfarism.
“We have to keep the focus on the larger picture — how a majority government led by Modi has brought a transformative change in the lives of people and uplifted the poor,” a top BJP leader told News18 last week.
Modi gave the same mantra to BJP CMs in a meeting after the inauguration of the new Parliament building on Sunday.
The top BJP leader said state elections should not be considered as ‘semi-finals’ before the Lok Sabha elections and pointed out how BJP failed to form governments in Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh or Chhattisgarh in 2018 but soon after swept all these states in the Lok Sabha elections of 2019.
“When we win a state, we also don’t link it to the Lok Sabha elections which is all about electing Modi as the prime minister and people’s trust in him to lead the country strongly rather than any unstable opposition alliance,” the BJP leader quoted above said.
A 244-page booklet on nine years of the government makes the brief clear — how PM Modi has focussed on “14 priorities”, adding to it “a sprinkle of magical intent, a touch of genuine empathy, a stash of unwavering risk, and a full measure of undiluted patriotism”.
Freebie Challenge in State Elections
One of the most formidable challenges for the BJP is the new ‘freebies’ model adopted by the Congress to woo the electorate in state elections — something that has reaped dividends for it in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh.
“The point is that we are also giving benefits to the poor from the national and state level. When we promise something, the people know it will happen for sure. In the case of the Congress, people are not so sure. We have to impress that more in our campaign,” a BJP leader said.
This, the top leader said, could involve BJP “taking the message effectively down to the ground level” and to ensure this could mean starting its state election campaigns early for the four states scheduled to go to polls later this year.
A case in point is how PM Modi has already started his Rajasthan tours, doing public meetings in key areas like Dausa and Bhilwara, and now going for a big public meeting in Ajmer on May 31 — all stronghold areas of Congress leader Sachin Pilot.
In short, expect the BJP to come back strongly after the Karnataka and Himachal loss, and some lessons being learnt.
“It is a fact that Congress government in Rajasthan did not execute the farm loan waiver and Chhattisgarh government did not give the promised unemployment allowance. The public needs to be reminded of that. If’s and but’s have entered in the Karnataka promises of the Congress too,” the BJP leader said.
Another top BJP leader, however, conceded that impressing upon people the ‘fiscal burden’ of such freebies on the exchequer “does not work”.
A classic example is Karnataka where BJP questioned before the electorate how the state will bear a burden of Rs 50,000 crore a year due to the Congress guarantees but people still voted for the Congress.
“The point in state election also is all boiling down to the local MLAs’ performance. There are multiple factors that led to Karnataka loss,” the senior BJP leader said.
The ‘Larger Picture’
The focus of 2024 is firmly on the ‘larger picture’ of the benefits of a Modi-led majority government that has so far “achieved what exactly it promised”, as per the latest government booklet.
“Even if the promises were daunting — be it the abrogation of Article 370, or the vaccination of a billion citizens, the ban on Triple Talaq, or laying the foundation of the Ram Janmabhoomi temple which will be ready next year – it has bettered its own parameters, and outperformed even under tremendously challenging circumstances,” the BJP claims.
This is expected to be the template for BJP’s campaign for the 2024 elections too — a liberal dose of nationalism and welfarism.
“If the resolve of ‘nation-first’ is applied thoroughly, then political discourse and policy implementation can be a match made in heaven,” the nine-year booklet says, adding that it is the ‘gift of giving’ that the PM’s strategic vision has espoused.
The Modi government says in this ‘Amrit Kaal’, everyone is a part of India’s growth story.
“The story of new India, of Atmanirbhar Bharat, of Ek Bharat Shreshtha Bharat is one that only dreams can be made of. It’s a good thing, we’ve come to expect those dreams to come true. Because, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, indeed, they do!” says the government booklet.
This is the pitch that will fetch the BJP 300+ seats again in 2024, top BJP leaders say, adding that the Opposition will fall way short.