India’s year-long presidency of the G-20, and the leadership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), should not blind us to the challenges facing the nation, due to a combination of circumstances. Therefore, it should lower the high expectations that are being raised to reap a rich dividend from holding the two summits. Global peace, on which the Prime Minister of India spoke eloquently at the last G-20 summit in Indonesia, is nowhere under India’s control. Instead, everything points to a further deterioration in the geopolitical environment and a clear prospect of an imminent conflict. Given the deteriorating global situation, the priorities listed by India as part of its presidency, such as climate change, clean energy, sustainable development programs and reform of multilateral institutions, are likely to take a back seat. As a result, the expectation of reaping a rich dividend from Summit may be misplaced.
India also needs to be aware that the importance of G-20 seems to be decreasing in today’s world. Looks like SCO has a bit more traction. During its chairmanship of the two institutions, India may be asked to chart a course that balances the conflicting demands of the G-20 and the SCO – and even more so of the global South. All this leaves little room for grandeur, and India must proceed with caution.
two camps and mistrust
The world may not yet be on the brink of a global conflict, but it is dangerously close to it. The mistrust between the two camps, led by the United States and China/Russia respectively, leaves little room for countries such as India – which has not declared its allegiance to either camp – to maneuver. The US and its allies, meanwhile, are taking advantage of the fact that they are in a position to provide Ukraine with an arsenal of the most sophisticated weapons available, along with the provision of training for its troops.
Today, Ukraine boasts of possessing a substantial amount of sophisticated modern weaponry. Less obvious is the fact that Russia is also secretly obtaining equipment and materials from its allies, China not excluded. Thus both sides are preparing themselves to demonstrate which set of modern weapons is better. A single wrong move could unleash an Armageddon.
The process of amassing the most advanced arsenal of weapons in modern history had begun shortly before, but it was April that saw a kind of culmination. In addition to the US and European countries such as Germany, many other countries are participating in the war in Europe with global influence. The list of potential suppliers of military equipment now includes countries such as South Korea, which runs the risk that arms supplies to Ukraine make them participants in the conflict.
Issues for India start from China
For India, apart from the war clouds on the horizon in Europe and tensions in the eastern Pacific, there are many issues of deep concern. Most important is how to deal with a rampaging China, which is currently on a major diplomatic-cum-strategic offensive across Asia, particularly West Asia. It has demonstrated its naval prowess in most of the seas of East and Southeast Asia, and demonstrated its military might in the Ladakh and Arunachal regions of the Sino-Indian border. China is unlikely to be deterred by the ‘vanilla’ response given by India’s Defense Minister, Rajnath Singh during his recent meeting with his Chinese counterpart, General Li Shangfu, i.e., ‘peace’ improving relations with China Will depend on on the border’.
This is only likely to reduce the space for maneuver on the Indian side, at a time when China is launching several other regional initiatives to counter India in the Indian Ocean Region, such as the China-Indian Ocean Region Forum which has a heavy Participation has been observed in numbers. Most of the states of the Indian Ocean. Furthermore, and unlike India (which wants to limit the conflict with China to border issues),
China wants to widen the scope of conflict with India. Currently China is targeting India to get closer to the US and the Western Bloc for its partnership in the Quad (India, Australia, Japan, US) as well as for its participation in maritime surveillance exercises with the US, Japan and Australia .
China is also actively engaged in seeking new friends in India’s extended neighborhood to limit India’s influence in the region. West Asia, a region where India’s influence was once strong, appears to be succumbing increasingly to China’s might and diplomatic onslaught. Despite India’s efforts to reach out to old friends like Egypt (the Egyptian President was the chief guest at the Republic Day parade this year) India seems to have been sidelined given the major churnings in West Asia, much of it China It was on the initiative of The new China-brokered Iran-Saudi Arabia deal is setting the stage for major diplomatic changes across the region, marginalizing India and some other countries.
India is by and large not ignorant of China’s hostile intentions. It is well aware of China’s ability to launch hybrid warfare, which includes adopting cyber tactics, engaging in ‘water politics’ by redirecting Himalayan rivers, and adapting to modern conditions practiced by the Chinese in the fifth century BC. Is. Strategist, Sun Tzu, to ‘avoid the enemy’s strength and win the battle without attacking his weaknesses’. Caution should be the slogan of India.
neighborhood and russia
Other upheavals in India’s immediate neighborhood in South Asia add to India’s problems. The situation in Afghanistan seems to be deteriorating continuously. The events happening in that country are now affecting the countries around it. Meanwhile, India has lost all fascination with the Taliban in Afghanistan. Pakistan and Sri Lanka represent, to varying degrees, ‘worst case’ scenarios.
India’s relations with Russia also seem to be entering a long period of uncertainty. The Russian relationship is not necessarily in defense cooperation, but it has been an important factor in strengthening their ties. As India looks more to the West, especially the US, for cutting-edge weaponry, the imperative of the relationship can no longer be guaranteed. With the Russia-China strategic relationship strengthening and both countries openly airing their belief in the usefulness of such a relationship, tensions in India-Russia relations are inevitable. Russia’s apparent attack on the Quad during the recent SCO Defense Ministers’ meeting in New Delhi is a sign of the winds of change that are becoming evident. Meanwhile, other Russia-linked alliances, such as the trilateral Russia-India-China Forum and BRICS, have lost much of their dynamism. The economic content of the bilateral relationship is limited, and is currently tied to trade in oil, which provides little dynamism to the relationship.
The moot point, therefore, is that while India is one of the few countries in the world that has managed to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic and the resultant economic crisis without loss, and is widely regarded as a potential global power It is seen, he has a lot to do before achieving this pinnacle. India has to cross many hurdles before achieving its predetermined goal. Prior to this, and despite its contingent position of running both the G-20 and the SCO simultaneously, India should not claim to have achieved its goal.
MK Narayanan is former director of Intelligence Bureau, former National Security Advisor and former Governor of West Bengal