It is clear that the BJP is ahead of its rivals and there is a tough fight between the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party for the second position.
It is clear that the BJP is ahead of its rivals and there is a tough fight between the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party for the second position.
For quite a few assembly elections, Gujarat has seen a direct contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress. Is 2023 any different?
The Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) survey indicates that the situation has changed dramatically and we may now see a triangular contest. BJP is well ahead of its rivals in terms of vote share. Its estimated vote share is almost twice the vote share of its nearest rival (Table 1). The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has emerged as the closest rival to the BJP and the Congress has slipped to the third position. The survey indicates that the vote share of the Congress has halved (compared to the 2017 elections) and the beneficiary has been the AAP.
While support for AAP diminishes as the respondent ages, the reverse is true for the BJP. You have more support among those who have greater access to education. The BJP is doing better in rural areas, while both Congress and AAP enjoy more support in cities than in villages. As the level of affluence of the respondents increases, the intensity of support for the BJP increases. AAP captures one-fourth of the votes of the poor and middle class and has limited support among the affluent. A quarter of the respondents are in favor of Congress among the economically lower strata and the rich.
vote by caste groups
The BJP appears to have strong support among the powerful Patidars and the upper castes. Compared to 2017, the Congress has lost a major chunk of the Patidar vote to the BJP. The BJP seems to have majority support among the non-Koli OBCs. There seems to be a three-way division of Dalit votes, with the Congress getting the largest share. There is also a three-way split in the tribal vote, with the BJP securing the largest share. The same applies to the Koli vote as well. About half the Muslim vote goes to the Congress. Three out of every 10 like AAP and one in every 10 is in favor of BJP. There has been a decline in the Muslim vote for both the Congress and the BJP as compared to 2017.
While three-quarters of Congress voters said they would vote for the party they currently indicated, seven out of every 10 BJP supporters took a similar stand. A little over two-thirds of AAP voters indicated that they would not change their electoral choice. While one-third of AAP supporters believed their decision on who to vote for could change, the level of uncertainty between BJP and Congress supporters was very low (Table 2).
Conclusion on Congress
The findings also show that although the Congress has not been in power in Gujarat for the past two decades, and a third option has entered the election, more than half of the voters (56%) believe that the Congress is an effective opposition party. has been in the state. While the proportion of those who held this view was stronger among Congress voters, nearly three-fifths among AAP voters and a little over half of BJP voters also shared the view that the Congress has been an effective opposition party in Gujarat. .
The survey clearly indicates that there is a three-way race in Gujarat. A month before the elections, it is clear that the BJP is ahead of its rivals and there is a close contest between the Congress and the AAP for the second spot.
Sandeep Shastri is the Vice Chancellor and National Coordinator of Lokniti Network at Jagran Lakecity University, Bhopal; Sanjay Kumar Professor and Co-Director, Lokniti-CSDS