‘Imran Khan has been on the offensive against the Army and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) ever since he was removed in April 2022’ | Photo Credit: AP
There Uproar in Pakistan after the arrest of ousted Prime Minister and head of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Imran Khan On May 9, 2023. with The Pakistan Supreme Court termed his arrest as illegal.And this The Islamabad High Court granted him bail for two weeks. Imran Khan and PTI should get relief on the crucial Al Qadri Trust matter. However, with the strong stand taken by the government, PTI, establishment and judiciary, the political atmosphere is unlikely to cool down. Mr. Khan’s arrest in the court premises, a fiery press briefing by the establishment’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) beforehand, violence on the streets, and the extraordinary relief granted to Mr. Khan by the judiciary highlight the following four trends – Pakistan’s Things are getting worse for him.
prime target
Firstly, PTI’s reaction to the arrest of its leader. The extent of the violence across the country and PTI supporters taking to the streets underscore Mr Khan’s popularity. The violence and fury was widespread (from Peshawar to Karachi) and was not random and indiscriminate. The primary targets were the installation, its infrastructure and some of the senior military. The Corps Commander’s residence in Lahore, the Frontier Corps Headquarters and the General Headquarters (GHQ) in Lahore were targeted. Anti-Army sloganeering and stone pelting on Army vehicles were also witnessed. There are many videos on these attacks.
The violence and fury have rattled the ruling establishment more than the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)-led government. PTI’s anger is more visible against the army. The establishment has never faced such fury before with statements, slogans and violence against its property and personnel. PTI supporters are making their presence felt on the streets, while PTI leaders are targeting the government and ruling establishment through social media and public statements. The government has decided to prosecute the rioters under the Pakistan Army Act and the Official Secrets Act; The Army Chief has confirmed that the process has begun.
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Second, the reaction of the establishment and the larger meaning behind it. Just a day before Mr. Khan’s arrest, an ISPR statement dated May 8, 2023 (in response to Mr. Khan’s allegation against a serving army officer for being a part of his assassination attempt) said: “These fabricated and malicious The allegations are extremely unfortunate, condemnable and unacceptable.” The statement also noted a “consistent pattern” over the past year in which “officers from military and intelligence agencies are targeted”. Similar statements from the ISPR last year condemned Mr Khan’s comments.
Mr Khan has since been on the offensive against the army and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) He was removed in April 2022, After His assassination attempt in Wazirabad In the last year, he has turned sharp, openly challenging the role of the ISI with pointed questions. The Imran Khan-ruler equation that existed earlier has faded. The establishment is no longer a sacred cow in Pakistan for political leaders, an image that the establishment has carefully nurtured since Pakistan’s independence. It’s hostile now. No other political leader in Pakistan could have accused serving officers of the Army and ISI. But now people are not only questioning it but also attacking it. The mob attack on the GHQ and the residence of the Lahore Corps Commander should underline how the army’s public image has been damaged.
Does this now mean that the establishment will go back to the Sharifs? Of the two Sharifs, Shahbaz Sharif has always been the favourite. Shahbaz Sharif is making all the right statements about khaki. Or, will the government try a new arrangement with Bilawal Bhutto? Asif Ali Zardari, working with the PML-N as a part of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), has been extra careful and is watching the Islamabad pie. There is also an attempt to break PTI; Some have started leaving PTI; This may turn into an exodus.
Third, the next steps for the government, the PDM alliance and the PML-N. Whatever happened between the ruling establishment and Imran Khan, the government should be happy. May 9 violence is being used to target other PTI leaders as well. Legally, the government thinks it has a strong case under which it arrested Imran Khan, that is, the Al Qadri Trust case. The PML-N would probably like to disqualify Imran Khan through the National Accountability Bureau.
focus on punjab
The big issue for the PML-N is to win back Punjab. The PTI had made significant inroads in the last elections and also during the bypolls. The biggest challenge is to curb Imran Khan’s popularity, given the rise in the pro-Imran base in Punjab and the spontaneous anger following his arrest. So, what’s next for the government? It will consider charging Mr Khan in some more legal cases, or try to arrest him again at a later date.
There is also a fourth issue before Pakistan – Judiciary and Imran Khan. There is a perception that the judiciary is being lenient towards Mr. Khan, favoring his position on major political issues. For example, the Supreme Court’s position on holding elections is in line with that of the PTI. The PML-N is unhappy with the role of the judiciary in the latest arrest episode. The prime minister launched a scathing attack after the Supreme Court declared Imran Khan’s arrest illegal.
The four institutions, i.e. the government, the opposition, the establishment and the judiciary, seem to be pulling in opposite directions with different endgames. The situation is likely to get worse for Pakistan.
D. Suba Chandran is Professor and Dean, School of Conflict and Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore.