In a weak US presidential race

The US presidential election of 2024 promises to be a rare treat for those interested in politics and political campaigning. Both Democrats and Republicans have to prepare themselves for not only some soul-searching but painful decisions as well. The traditional norm is that an incumbent president is not challenged in the primaries if he wants to run for re-election. And the Democratic incumbent, Joseph Biden, has made it abundantly clear that he is running for re-election.

which way does the wind blow

But here’s the problem: Two-thirds of Democrats in a recent poll don’t want him to run; And 94% of Democrats under the age of 30 want someone other than Biden on the ticket. Only 26% in the survey conducted by new York Times And Siena College wants Mr. Biden in 2024. For those who are opposed to the president within the party, 33% are due to his age (he is 79 years old) and 32% due to job performance.

Forget voting among Democrats. A Gallup poll showed a historic low approval rating for Mr Biden with 33% saying he deserves to be re-elected and 67% opposing otherwise. What is worse is that only 13% believe the country is headed in the right direction and 77% say it is on the wrong track. Analysts have not forgotten to point out that Mr Biden’s current position is four points below the level of support for President Donald Trump in an April 2018 poll.

Mr Biden’s sorry position in the polls does not mean good news for the Republican Party or Mr Trump, who has expressed interest in running for re-election in 2024. new York TimesThe Siena College poll also shows that nearly 50% of Republican primary voters are looking at a new candidate in the next presidential election, not Mr. Trump. A blow to supporters of the 45th President (Mr. Trump) will be that 64% of those under 35 and 65% of those who are in college are against Mr. Trump’s re-election.

In the Republican Party’s tally of hopes, Mr. Trump still leads the pack with Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis coming in second; But other prospects such as Texas Senator Ted Cruz, former Vice President Mike Pence, former South Carolina governor, Nikki Haley, and former Congressman and Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, all have support in only single digits. Trump is a problem not only for the Republican Party but for himself, given the civil cases and potential criminal charges that the Justice Department may consider a congressional investigation into the January 6 riots and incitement on Capitol Hill. , Prominent Republicans may say they are not glued to television, but the committee investigating the riots has seen testimony from former Trump aides of the former president’s possible criminal role.

Biden vs Trump

Perhaps the only bright spot for Mr. Biden is that he outperforms Mr. Trump among registered voters, but only narrowly – 44% to 41%; And his saying that 92% of Democrats support him if he runs in 2024 is misleading. If his opponent was Donald Trump, it would be 92% of Democrats who would vote for him, the poll showed. The problem for the Democratic Party is how to rearrange the Biden White House for real performance in 2024, with or without Mr Trump. Mr Biden is already being compared to the presidency of Jimmy Carter (1977–1981) and the last thing Democrats want is a bruised primary on the lines of the show put up by Senator Edward Kennedy in 1980, in which Rep. Almost coming. party convention.

issue for republicans

Republicans have a different problem: Personally, it seems that a good majority of party conservatives and elders don’t have the stomach for Mr. Trump and his antics; But very few of them have the courage to bid farewell to the former president. In fact, senior Republicans are hoping Mr. Trump will announce his presidency no earlier than the November 8 mid-term, where the Grand Old Party is expected to make massive inroads into the House of Representatives and perhaps even take control of the Senate. . , Biden is banking on making the most of the presidency, reportedly faltering on the Republican economy, fuel prices and inflation; Rather than tracking the resurgence of outrageous and bogus claims of fraud in the 2020 presidential election. The Republican Party wants Biden’s focus for the mid-term, not on Mr. Trump.

November 2024 may be a long way off but certainly not for the two major parties trying to put themselves together to meet the internal challenges. Should President Biden suddenly decide not to run for re-election or face a primary challenge, it could be worse than a Carter-era re-run, with Vice President Kamala Harris not necessarily running for the front. . Right now his position in elections is as good or as bad as that of his president; And many Democrats won’t be convinced he’s a strong candidate.

It’s not the Revolving Door Presidency that scares Republicans when they think of Donald Trump’s return to the White House. It is in a Republican Party pool that will enable the former president to come out on top as it did in 2016; Or an angry Mr Trump running as an independent if the party mustered up the courage to ask him to back down. In more ways than one, the nearly 18-month showdown will be a turning point for both Democrats and Republicans as they make a choice for America’s future; Don’t let the clichéd debates and conspiracy theories continue about victories and defeats.

Sridhar Krishnaswamy was a senior journalist in Washington for 14 years, covering North America and the United Nations