In free fall: on Lebanon and its sectarian politics

Lebanon, which has been battling several crises for the past few years, is on the verge of economic collapse. The recession that forced the country to default on its bonds in 2019, for the first time since its independence in 1943, was exacerbated over the previous year. Beirut port explosion. NS explosion that killed more than 200 people And on August 4, 2020, about 7,000 others have been injured It is estimated to have caused $15 billion in damage. The explosion has also deepened the country’s political crisis as Lebanon has since been ruled by a caretaker government. The Mediterranean country is now going through a severe economic downturn, shortages of medicine, food and fuel, and rising crimes. Recently, its central bank said it could no longer finance fuel imports at concessional rates, citing low reserves. The fuel shortage has created a chaotic scene across the country. Last week, at least 28 people were killed in the north of the country when a fuel tank exploded while locals were scrambling for its fuel. UNICEF has warned that millions of Lebanese are facing severe water shortages. The economic crisis has pushed more than half the population into poverty, while currency values ​​have fallen by as much as 90%. According to the World Bank, Lebanon’s per capita GDP fell 40% in dollar terms between 2018 and 2020, while real GDP declined by 20.3% in 2020. The bank estimates that even with quick reforms, it will take years for the economy to come back. to its pre-crisis size.

Since the Beirut explosion, President Michel Aoun has appointed three nominated prime ministers. Two of them quit after failing to form the government. According to the Lebanese constitution, the president must be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni, and the parliament speaker a Shia. Political parties are largely divided on communal lines. The prime ministerial nominee, who was a Sunni politician or technocrat, often failed to bring together the country’s various political factions, including President Aun. In late July, former Prime Minister Najib Mikati was tasked with forming the next government. He is yet to conclude talks with other political factions. With the country facing a serious fuel shortage, the powerful Shia militia-cum-political party, Hezbollah, has moved to import fuel directly from Iran. Hezbollah says it is trying to de-escalate the country’s fuel situation, while its opponents say the move is aimed at pushing Lebanon into the Iranian orbit and could be counterproductive because of the oil conflict with Iran. The deals could attract US sanctions. Lebanese politicians have sought new loans. IMF, but the fund will release money only if the government itself is committed to reforms. For that, Lebanon would first have to form a government. Lebanon’s political elite must realize that the country is facing a once in a century crisis, set aside its sectarian politics, and come together to form a stable government. If not then no one can stop the free fall of the country.