Neither the Rahul Gandhi factor nor the issue of entry of women to the Lord Ayyappa temple in Sabarimala, unlike the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, but a discernible anti-incumbency mood against the State government, and certainly strong communal undercurrents, are likely to shape the electoral outcomes in north Kerala this time. This apart, local issues ranging from human-wildlife conflict to debates on the Citizenship (Amendment) Act to development dominate themes in each of the nine constituencies from Kasaragod to Palakkad districts.
Of these, the Congress-led United Democratic Front appears to be in a comfortable edge only in three seats – Wayanad, Malappuram, and Ponnani. In the previous elections, the Congress-Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) combine won all nine seats.
Spotlight on Rahul
With Congress leader Rahul Gandhi vying for reelection from the Wayanad constituency, the spotlight is once again on him on his perceived aura of invincibility. However, he has to contend with the no-nonsense Annie Raja of the Communist Party of India (CPI), who is the Left Democratic Front (LDF) candidate. Besides, the late entry of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) State president K. Surendran adds another dimension. The Left parties have been unsparing in its criticism against the candidature of Mr. Gandhi, even as they snubbed the Congress for refusing to display the IUML flag during his roadshows.
Mr. Surendran’s initial momentum was dampened by controversy over his proposal to rename Sulthan Bathery town to Ganapathy Vattam, if elected. With such prominent contenders in the field, failure to secure a lead of over three lakh votes would signal a decline in Mr. Gandhi’s popularity, especially considering his huge victory margin of over 4.31 lakh votes in 2019.
IUML leader E.T. Mohammed Basheer, who swapped his sitting seat, Ponnani, with his party colleague, M.P. Abdussamad Samadani, in Malappuram, seemed to be in a winning situation. Both can plausibly claim victory in their constituencies unless the anti-IUML lobby in the Samastha Kerala Jamiyyathul Ulama, the biggest organisation of Muslim scholars, decides to upset their applecart, particularly in Ponnani. The CPI(M) has nominated former IUML secretary K.S. Hamza to try his luck on the party ticket in this segment.
Kasaragod and Kannur
The two northern constituencies of Kasaragod and Kannur, where sitting Congress MPs Rajmohan Unnithan and K. Sudhakaran are in the fray, are witnessing a tough race with the CPI (M) fielding their district secretaries, M.V. Balakrishnan and M.V. Jayarajan, respectively. Both incumbents outwardly remain front-runners but are still batting on a sticky wicket.
The keenly-watched Vadakara constituency is turning out to be a no-holds-barred battle between rivals K.K. Shailaja of the CPI (M) and Shafi Parambil of the Congress. Already, a war of words has erupted after Ms. Shailaja lodged a complaint against Mr. Parambil for alleged abusive comments against her on social media. Both are legislators; Ms. Shailaja is from Mattannur and Mr. Parambil has been parachuted from Palakkad to ensure Muslim representation in the Congress list of candidates. The incumbent MP, K. Muraleedharan, is fighting a three-way poll battle in Thrissur. Ms. Shailaja’s popularity is high and is expected to break the jinx after Congress nominees have been winning from Vadakara since 2009.
If Mr. Parambil’s blitzkrieg campaigning works in his favour, then it also marks a watershed moment, as no Muslim has been elected from Vadakara, a constituency known for its political and communal sensitivity, since its inception.
Tight contest
A similar cut-throat competition is playing out in the prestigious Kozhikode constituency, with three-time MP M.K. Raghavan of the Congress in a direct fight with CPI (M) leader Elamaram Kareem. Initially, the narrative centered on the sobriquets “Raghavettan” and “Kareemkka.” But now the mood of the electorate remains unfathomable, with strong undercurrents that could make or mar the electoral fortunes of both. The performance of BJP candidate M.T. Ramesh is a crucial factor in these polls.
Politically, the CPI (M) is in a commanding position in Palakkad and Alathur, where the Congress has retained the sitting MPs, V.K. Sreekandan and Ramya Haridas as candidates respectively. Both are facing stiff challenges as the CPI (M) has nominated its Polit Bureau member A. Vijayaraghavan in Palakkad and, unprecedentedly, a Cabinet Minister, K. Radhakrishnan, in Alathur to wrest these seats. It would not be surprising if Congress loses both the seats. Here too, the performance of the BJP candidates, especially C. Krishnakumar in Palakkad, who is contesting for the second time, will be a determinant in the poll outcome.
By fielding heavyweight candidates in its direct contest against the Congress, as is the case elsewhere in Kerala, the Left parties are clearly indicating that their alliance within the INDIA bloc holds little significance, but they are resolute in increasing the number of MPs in Parliament.