Cyprus: The devastating earthquake in southern Turkey on 6 February, which killed more than 44,200 people, injured thousands, destroyed more than 164,000 buildings and caused more than US$80 billion in damage, is arguably Turkey’s worst earthquake in modern history. The worst is humanitarian disaster. It has also forced President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to change the focus of his election campaign.
These elections may be the most symbolic, dramatic and important in Turkey’s modern history, as they mark the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Republic of Turkey, deciding what course the country will take in the coming decades. , and will also determine whether Erdogan’s 22-year dominance of Turkey’s electoral life will end. The earthquake overturned Erdogan’s previous political election agenda.
Before 6 February, they aimed to contain growing discontent with promises of early increases in wages and pensions, as well as the falling value of the Turkish lira, and a sharp rise in food and energy prices. retirement. Now he will try to convince the Turkish people that he is the only one who can rebuild the destroyed houses and cities in one year (and not in five years, as the opposition parties promise) and thousands of people who Ensures tolerable living conditions for those who were left homeless.
Speaking to residents of the earthquake-hit Osmania city, Erdogan said: “You will allow us one year. Within one year, by God’s grace, we will build these permanent houses and settle our citizens. (… ) Our goal is to revitalize our villages, like our city centers, within a year.” Of course, Erdogan realizes that rebuilding 270,000 housing units and removing the estimated 230 million tons of debris from destroyed cities will be extremely difficult. It will be difficult – if not impossible – and the village, but he wants people to believe he is the only politician who can do it.
He is betting on the fact that desperate people who have lost their homes and loved ones would like to believe that they will return to their normal lives very soon and thus they will vote for him and not the opposition parties who say they did. Will go In a longer but more realistic time frame. Although the Turkish government wants to blame the collapse of so many buildings on contractors for using substandard materials and violating building codes, videos on social media show President Erdogan bragging in the past that “his amnesty policy removed the headache related to building standards for hundreds of thousands of citizens”.
Last Wednesday, Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said that 564 people had been identified in the criminal investigation of persons responsible for the collapse of buildings in the earthquake zone. “One hundred and sixty of them have been arrested, 18 are in police custody and 175 have been released on bail,” he added. So, in the coming days, we will see Erdogan inaugurating prefabricated housing facilities and container cities for the homeless and holding ground-breaking ceremonies for the construction of blocks of flats, possibly through public tenders to those contractors. Will be honored without his AKP party who are its supporters.
Furthermore, he will use the media he controls to make people forget the slow and ineffective initial response of the state rescue services and the armed forces to the earthquake. The AKP is being held responsible for the fact that the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD) was unprepared and disorganized to face the disaster and did not move fast enough to rescue the thousands of people who died after the two major aftershocks. He was alive several hours later.
In addition, the Turkish military, which deployed about 65,000 men within 48 hours to conduct search and rescue, evacuation and shelter operations and distribute food and clothing to survivors in the previous earthquake in Golçuk in August 1999, this time only about 7500 soldiers after a long delay. As Turkish people expressed their anger that the state had failed to save the lives of those buried under the rubble and prevent them from dying of hypothermia, the government arrested dozens of civilians to stop “provocative media posts about the earthquake”. Tried to. For the offense of “disruption”, punishable with imprisonment of up to three years.
So far 183 people were detained for having committed the relevant “crime”, while criminal proceedings were initiated against another 559 citizens. In its attempt to block the voices of those who accused it of incompetence in the face of the disaster, the government initially blocked Twitter, but reversed its decision after a few hours when it realized that the use of Twitter and other social media was beneficial for the debris. Was done to find survivors below.
President Erdogan has declared a state of emergency in ten districts affected by the earthquake. That means curtailing freedom of expression and assembly for 15 percent of Turkey’s 85 million population. This would allow them to control the election campaign and even the ballot box throughout the region. Therefore, people fear that Erdogan may be tempted to extend the state of emergency to the whole country.
Soner Cagupte of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy explains: “In addition to the nationwide restrictions on freedoms that his government had instituted in advance of the disaster, the State of Emergency (SOE) campaign was characterized as uniquely inappropriate and unfairly presented.” Those ten provinces were giving him an advantage at the ballot box.
In past weeks, polls showed the “Table of Six” opposition faction neck-and-neck with Erdogan’s alliance, so he may be sorely tempted to tilt the balance with the SOE. And if unrest or protests break out at the national level, he can even expand the SOE to cover the whole country.”