TeaThe next general election is now round the corner, as the current Lok Sabha is set to complete its term in June 2024. Political permutations and combinations are taking shape these days. An important political signal is emerging from Telangana, which has the potential to influence the political arena of India. there are Speculation Alliance between the Indian National Congress (INC) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The buzz intensified after the meeting between All India Congress Committee (AICC) secretary SA Sampath Kumar and BSP state president RS Praveen Kumar. According to The New Indian Express reportsBehind-the-scenes talks have been going on for some time.
The apparent focus of such alliances may be regional in nature; However, its effects could shake up the electoral arithmetic of several Indian states, with Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Punjab potentially experiencing the most significant effects. Elections are going to be held in Madhya Pradesh this year, where BJP and Congress are in a tough fight. The BSP has a significant presence here, not enough to win many seats, but enough to change the balance in the score of seats.
a shared history
To find out the possible implications of this possible political union, it is important to take a look at the recent electoral history of UP, a state that has always been an important theater of Indian politics.
In the UP assembly elections 2022, the BJP won under the leadership of Yogi Adityanath. 255 seats In the 403-member assembly, a decline from their high 312 seats In 2017. The Congress, led by the party’s general secretary Priyanka Gandhi, reached the finish line with only two seats. This was a significant drop from their already modest score of seven seats in the last election. Under Mayawati’s leadership, the BSP faltered with just one seat, a shocking drop from its previous tally of 19 seats.
Significantly, 15 years ago in the 2007 assembly elections in UP, the BSP had won an absolute majority. Similarly, UP was considered a Congress bastion till the 1980s. Now the situation has changed so much that the party’s top leader Rahul Gandhi lost his Amethi seat in the 2019 general election.
The above electoral figures highlight the dismal state both the Congress and the BSP find themselves in in UP, a state that holds a pole position in national politics by virtue of its 80 Lok Sabha seats. It is clear that both sides are grappling with the dire need for one to revive his political fortunes.
Interestingly, the road to this possible political alliance is not entirely new to both the parties. Congress and BSP formed together brief alliance for the UP assembly elections in 1996, which disintegrated within a few years due to internal strife. This historical precedent, combined with their current politically difficult situation, has led to speculation as to whether they can set aside their differences and unite once again, this time for political survival. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi had earlier tried to forge an alliance with the BSP, but the BSP was cold to the idea at that time.
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Muslim voters and common interest
Congress and BSP are at risk of further decline in UP politics. In these dark times, an alliance could be the lifeline they need. Together, they can combine their resources and influence, making a strategic move that could potentially lead to a shift in voting patterns, especially among the Muslim demographic. Historically, Muslims in the state have gravitated towards the Samajwadi Party, especially after the Babri Masjid demolition in 1992.
A substantial exodus of Muslim voters (with a population share of 19.26 per cent in UP) towards the BSP-Congress alliance could spell doom for the Samajwadi Party. Muslim vote in 2022 election foundation Out of 111 seats of Samajwadi Party, 32. A change in the political allegiance of this demographic could weaken the SP’s electoral base and significantly reduce its political stature in UP.
Congress’s possible tie-up with the BSP for Muslim voters, who still account for the bulk of the SC vote, could emerge as a beacon in the political storm. Despite their strong allegiance to the Samajwadi Party, their collective vote has not been powerful enough to effectively challenge the BJP’s hegemony in recent elections, especially after the BJP’s 2014 election victory at the national level. An alliance between the Congress and the BSP could emerge as an alternative platform that could better voice their concerns and interests, and present a more formidable opposition to the BJP’s supremacy. However, at this point it is only a possibility.
The success of this proposed alliance rests on several important factors. These include resolving long-standing ideological differences, setting up a proper power-sharing mechanism, strategic distribution of seats, and most importantly, convincing their respective voter bases about the merits and potential of this new political course . The mission is undoubtedly difficult but the potential prize—a reestablished political base—may make the struggle worth it. Coming together is not easy for both the parties considering their bitter past. It would be more difficult for their supporters to vote for each other’s candidates. As the saying goes, desperate times call for desperate measures, and both sides have almost nothing to lose.
The tentative alliance between INC and BSP, though currently embroiled in local politics, could trigger a domino effect that would reverberate through the political landscape in UP and beyond. Their shared history and mutual need for political revival could ignite the spark needed for renewed collaboration. The ultimate success or failure of this political venture could dramatically reshape the political trajectory of Uttar Pradesh, leaving a lasting mark on the country’s political map. I am keeping my fingers crossed.
Dilip Mandal is the former managing editor of India Today Hindi magazine, and has written books on media and sociology. He tweeted @Profdilipmandal. Thoughts are personal.
(Edited by Ratan Priya)