On 15 August, one-sixth of humanity will collectively celebrate 75 years of breathing the fresh air of independence from colonial rule. a nation that has been a democratic, secular, self-governing republic for 7 decades; Which saw a nationwide democratic and largely peaceful transfer of power 16 times since 1947. It is probably the only major modern country to have introduced universal suffrage from day one, empowering every adult, male or female, rich or poor, literate or not. Hindu or Muslim, to bring about change for good with that magical ‘astra’ of the vote. At birth, independent India was largely illiterate, extremely poor from centuries of colonial exploitation and suffered the stigma of rampant hunger and short life expectancy. The nation, which soon became a self-governing republic, is today the world’s third largest economy in purchasing power parity, has doubled life expectancy, greatly reduced poverty and is a geopolitical force. . Over the past 75 years, many large nations fell apart, most notably the USSR, but India has remained united with its captivating diversity, be it language, religion, race, cuisine or culture. Even Canada almost fell apart on the issue of language in the 1960s. Unlike many other pre-colonial nations, we haven’t had a military coup, nor is it even worth thinking about.
Our achievements in many areas are impressive. For example, achieving food self-sufficiency for such a large population. From being constantly starved of foreign exchange and on the verge of bankruptcy in 1991, retaining the fourth-largest reserves is no small feat. Despite being a rare Asian economy with a persistent current account deficit, a fairly consistent surplus on the balance of payments is amazing and reflects global investor confidence. A software outsourcing powerhouse with exports of around $200 billion, it is aiming for half a trillion in the coming decade. A global diaspora that sends most of the world’s remittances, about $100 billion. A global leader in solar and wind energy, with ambitious targets ahead of schedule. India is blessed with possibly 350 days of sunshine over a vast landmass, making it the solar power capital of the world. The key to uncovering the power of hydrogen is to combine solar-powered electrolysis, making it cost-effective and highly sustainable. This can make India a net exporter of energy. Solar can also help solve our drinking water crisis through desalination. With the success of the Unified Payments Interface, India is a world leader in digital transactions. The open network for digital commerce is expected to move towards fair and inclusive e-commerce. In telecommunications, space and cyber technology too, India will soon become a force to be reckoned with. It is one place, one market and one fast-growing economy that global investors cannot ignore. The rise of India is widely welcomed as it is seen as benign in contrast to China.
Nevertheless, much remains to be done. India’s world ranking by the Hunger Index is embarrassingly low. Unemployment affects the economy, especially for the educated youth. Education neither ensures quality nor employment. The skills gap is wide, while 70% of manufacturing jobs are facing extinction. Job insecurity is indicated by a number reported in Parliament last week. In the last 7 years 220 million Indians applied for only 700,000 jobs. One-fourth of all Indian adults sought government job security. Why this lack of trust in the private sector or entrepreneurship? Women’s participation in the workforce is also alarmingly low and falling.
Beyond economics, the position of the rule of law is unsatisfactory. There are more than 47 million cases pending in courts, some for years, and half a million people in prisons, three-quarters of them technically innocent because their trial hasn’t started or ended. The functioning of an economy crucially depends on the rule of law, prompt resolution of disputes and enforcement of contracts. Otherwise, a large part of the economy remains in the shadow of informality.
In the decades to come, demographics will continue to drive growth and perhaps give us a competitive edge, as long as we remain an open economy unafraid of global competition. Even if our per capita income quadruples by 2047, we will still be a middle-income country; and the second largest economy. The biggest determinant of the quality of development will be education. So, here are three indicators of growth over the next 25 years. Firstly, let every parent’s first choice be the nearest municipal school for their children. Second, there should be at least five Indian universities in the top 25 globally. Third, have more inbound students than outbound.
Ajit Ranade is a Pune-based economist
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