India, China risk armed conflict due to continued military posturing: US intelligence assessment

New Delhi: Military postures extended by both India and China line of actual control The (LAC) raises the risk of an armed confrontation between two nuclear powers that could pose a direct threat to the US and calls for its intervention, says US intelligence’s Global Threat Assessment for 2023.

US Intelligence Community Annual Threat Assessment reportsReleased by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence this week, it has been reported that India and China have engaged in bilateral border talks and resolved border points, but their ties will remain strained in the wake of the countries’ deadly conflict in 2020. Worst in decades.

the declassified part of the report was referring to galwan skirmish which saw severe losses on both sides in the eastern Ladakh In 2020.

The report said that the past standoff has demonstrated that the persistent low-level friction along the LAC has the potential to escalate rapidly.

It also raised red flags about ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan, saying the crisis between the two countries is of particular concern because of the risk of an escalating cycle between the two nuclear-armed states.

New Delhi and Islamabad are probably keen to consolidate the existing calm in their relationship with a fresh start on both sides Ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC) by early 2021.

“However, Pakistan has a long history of supporting anti-India terrorist groups, and under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is likely to respond with military force to perceived or actual Pakistani provocations,” the report said. more than ever.” ,

The report said that each side’s perception of heightened tensions raises the risk of conflict, with violent unrest in Kashmir or a “terrorist attack” in India being potential flashpoints.

highlighted the tension between America and ChinaThe detailed threat analysis said the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will continue efforts to achieve President Xi Jinping’s vision of making China a major power in East Asia and a major power on the world stage.

The report said, “As Xi begins his third term as China’s leader, the CCP will seek to pressure Taiwan for unification, reduce US influence, drive a rift between Washington and its allies, and do some will work to promote norms that support its totalitarian regime.”

At the same time, China’s leaders will likely look for opportunities to ease tensions with Washington when they feel it suits their interests.

The report said that Beijing – in pursuit of global influence – is increasingly combining military power with its economic, technological and diplomatic influence to strengthen the CCP regime and defend its sovereign territory and territorial superiority. can be seen as

“China has been able to leverage its dominant positions in key global supply chains in an effort to meet its goals, although perhaps not without significant cost to itself,” it added.

However, the report noted, China faces myriad – and in some cases growing – domestic and international challenges, including a growing population, high levels of corporate debt, economic inequality and the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) heavy-handed There is growing resistance to the strategy. In Taiwan and other countries, that would likely constrain the ambitions of CCP leaders.

(Editing by Richa Mishra)


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