India is not a bystander in the AUKUS saga

announcement of the last week of okus – New one Security Agreement between the United States, United Kingdom and Australia – Making waves around the world. The announcement is significant not only because it involves the transfer of nuclear submarine technology to Australia, but also because of the cancellation of an ongoing US$90 billion project by France to build conventional submarines for Australia.

Clearly, France is outraged. Paris has recalled its ambassador to Australia, accusing Canberra of “stabbing in the back” and betrayal. When ministers from Australia and France met less than a month ago, French officials said there had been no talk of scrapping the deal. The two sides also issued a joint statement indicating the continuation of the submarine programme. But Australia, it seems, was secretly negotiating a deal with Britain and the US, the unofficial termination of the submarine contract beyond Canberra, angering France as it was kept in the dark about discussions surrounding the new agreement. Was.

editorial | Another agglomeration: on aucus

For observers in India, the AUKUS saga evokes mixed feelings. Many are happy for Australia – a participant in the Quad (of India, the US, Japan and Australia) – to receive high-quality nuclear submarine technology from the US and UK, strengthening China’s deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. But there is no mistaking the sense of sympathy with France, India’s leading partner in the Indian Ocean. “Why could France not be taken into confidence,” many ask. “It would have prevented an unfair brawl between all the big players in the Indo-Pacific, friends.” Some quad-skeptics see this as a sign of what the future may hold for India. If Australia and the US, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) partners can betray France, they ask, what is there to stop them from doing so with fewer allies?

New Delhi Uncomfortable

There is another reason why Indian officials are looking at it differently. There are fears that the deal may eventually lead to a rush of nuclear attack submarines (SSN/Submersible Ship Nuclear) in the eastern Indian Ocean, eroding India’s territorial superiority. The Indian Navy currently dominates space, but its traditional underwater capability is shrinking. An Indian plan to develop a fleet of nuclear attack submarines has received no offers of help from the US that does not share its prized nuclear submarine technology with its closest allies; Obviously, all except Australia. Washington’s willingness to help Canberra build the SSN raises the possibility that Australia may deploy nuclear submarines in the eastern Indian Ocean before India is in its position. It’s not just fiction. The Indian Navy, the major security provider in the eastern Indian Ocean, is not building submarines at the pace required. Indian officials are not comfortable with the prospect of a friendly SSN in India’s backyard, despite shared concerns over China’s growing submarine presence in the region.

auks vs quad

It doesn’t help that AUKUS has diverted attention from the quad. Whatever the Joe Biden administration argues, the spirit of war in New Delhi cannot be denied. There is one more thing in the new deal than just a subtle hint of US favoritism for Australia. The agreement suggests preferential treatment on the part of Washington to a close Anglo-Alliance partner. A senior US official briefing the media about the AUKUS deal last week underscored the “very rare” nature of the arrangement and the “extremely sensitive” technology it shares with Australia. “This is an exception to our policy in many ways,” he said. “I don’t think it will be done under any other circumstances; we see it as a one-off.” This makes some in Delhi wonder why the US should pay allowance for one quad partner and not the other.

technology pursuit

Although it has hardly received any submarine technology from the US, New Delhi has been accepting American discretion in this matter. India has instead relied on Russia for nuclear submarine technology, including the construction of the reactor of India’s first SSBN/submarine ship Ballistic Missile Nuclear (Arihant) and the acquisition (leasing) of a nuclear attack submarine. However, the indigenous SSN program of the Indian Navy requires a more powerful nuclear reactor than a nuclear reactor installed at Arihant (a non-combat platform). As Quad ties deepened, some in India expected the US to consider providing nuclear submarine propulsion technology to the Indian Navy. Clarification by Washington that the deal with Australia is an “outright” one that has lived up to Indian expectations.

Now there is speculation that Delhi may consider taking French help for nuclear submarines. The view is that New Delhi should take advantage of the opportunity to move its nuclear propulsion technology forward to France. Despite less than satisfactory experience with the Project 75 ‘Scorpene’-class submarine programme, some suggest that India should accept French aid for the construction of the SSN reactor.

However, for the time being, India is being careful in its official response to AUKUS. The bottom line for New Delhi is that it cannot be seen taking sides in fights between friends. France, the US, Britain and Australia are some of India’s closest allies, and Indian officials want to avoid the awkwardness of backing one ally over the other. Despite concerns over the possibility that Australia’s nuclear submarine capability could overtake India in the coming years, Indian officials have recognized the need for Canberra to re-evaluate its strategic environment and strengthen deterrence against China. .

Similarly, many in New Delhi feel the pain of France. Australia’s recently canceled deal was a key part of France’s struggle to maintain an indigenous naval industry, and a key component of its Indo-Pacific vision. India, by some accounts, wants to deepen bilateral strategic ties, and play a role in restoring French trust and pride.

Abhijit Singh is a Senior Fellow and retired naval officer at the Observer Research Foundation