The country had received normal rainfall during the four-month southwest monsoon season in 2019, 2020 and 2021.
The country had received normal rainfall during the four-month southwest monsoon season in 2019, 2020 and 2021.
India is normal rain likely The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday that favorable La Nia conditions during the southwest monsoon season this year are predicted to continue during the June-September period.
The country had received normal rainfall during the four-month southwest monsoon season in 2019, 2020 and 2021.
The IMD said that the rainfall during the southwest monsoon season in 2022 would be 96% to 104% of the long period average (LPA) of 87 cm for the period 1971-2020.
Earlier, IMD used to consider LPA of 88 cms for the period 1961-2010. Quantitatively, the monsoon rainfall during June to September is expected to be 99% of the LPA, with a margin error of 5%.
The Meteorological Department has predicted a 40% chance of ‘normal’ rain, a 15% chance of ‘beyond normal’ (104% to 110%) of the LPA and a 5% chance of ‘excess’ rainfall (above 110% of the LPA). ) is. ,
There is a 14% chance of ‘below normal’ rainfall (96% to 90% of LPA) and ‘short’ rainfall (less than 90% of LPA).
Above normal rainfall is very likely to occur over many areas over northern parts of peninsular India, central India, foothills of Himalayas and some parts of north-west India.
It said that there is a possibility of below normal rainfall in many parts of Northeast, parts of Northwest India and southern parts of the peninsula.
The IMD will issue an updated forecast for the monsoon season by the end of May.
It said La Nia conditions in the equatorial Pacific are likely to continue during the monsoon season.
Also, the neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) position over the Indian Ocean is predicted to continue till the onset of the southwest monsoon season. Subsequently, an increased probability of negative IOD conditions is predicted.
The El Nio–Southern Oscillation is an irregular cycle of changes in air and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting most tropical and subtropical climates.
The warming phase of ocean temperatures is known as El Nio and the cooling phase is known as La Nia.
El Nio is generally known to suppress monsoon rainfall in India while La Nia enhances it.
The Indian Ocean Dipole, also known as the Indian Nino, is an irregular oscillation of sea surface temperature in which the western Indian Ocean becomes alternately warmer and then cooler than the eastern side of the ocean.
IOD has three phases – neutral, negative and positive.
Positive IOD phase is beneficial for monsoon and negative IOD hinders the progress of monsoon in India. However, the relationship of the Indian monsoon with IOD is not as strong as compared to the relationship with El Nio.