Indian economy looks poised for a boom as the pace of vaccination picks up

File photo of workers in a garment factory. Manisha Mandal| impression

Form of words:

Mumbai: India’s economy indicated it was set to accelerate, thanks to the resumption of its service sector expansion and manufacturing activity maintaining growth momentum in August.

Of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News, two gained momentum in the past month, while five held steady and one slowed. The needle on the dial measuring the so-called animal spirits, however, remained unchanged from July level, because the gauge uses a three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month readings.

Monthly expansion in services and manufacturing activity with relatively fewer new COVID-19 cases and faster speed of vaccination In a country of 1.3 billion people, more than 834 million doses have been administered to date. That said, a fifth of the population is fully vaccinated and the risk of a third wave of infection remains.

Here are the details of the dashboard for August:

Business Activity

Factory managers in India reported a surge in new orders last month, helping businesses maintain their optimistic growth projections. A similar survey of services purchasing managers showed a return to business confidence amid the easing of virus restrictions. This pushed the composite index into expansion territory for the first time in four months.

export

Year-on-year exports grew at a steady pace of about 46% in August, although the higher growth has been mainly due to the impact of contraction in the year-ago period. Data from other export powerhouses showed a different trend, with South Korea reporting rapid export growth and Vietnam seeing a sharp decline due to disruptions caused by the Covid outbreak.

consumer activity

Retail auto sales, a major driver of consumer demand, showed a mixed trend. While sales of passenger vehicles increased year-on-year, sales of two-wheelers – an indicator of animal spirits in smaller towns – declined.

Bank credit grew by 6.7% in August from a year earlier, from the level of 6.5% seen in mid-July, data from the central bank showed. Liquidity conditions remained surplus last month, leaving room for better credit.

industrial activity

Industrial output expanded 11.5% in July from a year earlier – a relatively slow pace compared to the first three months of the fiscal year beginning in April, and the closing of a favorable base effect.

Similarly, output in infrastructure industries, which account for 40% of the Index of Industrial Production, grew 9.4% in July with demand for coal, natural gas and cement driving activity. Both the data are published with an interval of one month.-bloomberg


Read also: Interest rates at 10-year low, discounts – Banks, builders raise hopes of revival in festive season


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