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New Delhi: Weak monsoon rains in India are threatening domestic soybean and groundnut crops, and could prompt the world’s biggest palm oil importer to boost purchases from top producers in Indonesia and Malaysia.
The world’s second most populous country, where fried food is a national tradition, depends on foreign suppliers for 70% of its edible oil needs. There are growing concerns that deficient monsoon rains this year could damage crops, raise food prices, threaten a nascent economic recovery and boost imports of agricultural commodities.
GG Patel, a seasoned trader and managing partner of GGN Research, said inbound shipments of palm oil will be higher in the year starting November 1, compared to an estimated 8 million tonnes in 2020-21. He did not provide an estimate for the following year. India imports palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, which are about 2,400 miles and 3,000 miles away from New Delhi respectively.
Patel, who has been trading in edible oils for more than five years, said erratic rains in the western state of Gujarat, India’s largest groundnut producer, and Madhya Pradesh, the country’s No. 1 soybean producer, are likely to affect oilseed crops. . decade. He said that the deficient rainfall in the northern Rajasthan state would potentially reduce the winter sown mustard crop as well as decrease in soil moisture.
Private weather forecaster Skymet Weather Services Pvt. India on Monday said it is likely to miss its forecast of normal monsoon in July and August due to little rain and unfavorable weather conditions. According to the India Meteorological Department, the country’s Meteorological Bureau, the cumulative rainfall so far in the June-September rainy season has been 9% below normal.
He said soybean production in 2021-22 will be lower than last year’s estimated 9.2 million tonnes, while groundnut production may fall from 5.4 million tonnes. According to the agriculture ministry, the total area under monsoon-sown oilseeds as of August 20 was 18.8 million hectares (46.5 million acres), compared to 19 million hectares a year ago. Sowing of some crops will continue till the end of this month.
The Meteorological Department said that so far the rainfall in Gujarat has been 47 percent less than the average. Weak Monsoon conditions will continue over many parts of the country during the next 4-5 days. – bloomberg
Read also: How ethanol-powered cars could drive up India’s food inflation
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