Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is facing more pressure from fellow Quad members – the US, Japan and Australia – to help push Russia toward a ceasefire. after meeting Modi In New Delhi on Saturday, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called for more cooperation between democracies, while Putin’s war has “shaken up the global order.” In contrast, PM Modi talked only on economic issues.
PM Modi is slated to hold a virtual summit with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Monday, while US Under Secretary for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland – who has helped coordinate the US response to Ukraine – is expected to meet later this week. I hope to come to New Delhi.
India, the world’s largest buyer of Russian weapons, is planning to push back the purchase by making necessary arguments to counter China’s growing military assertiveness and its other neighbour, Pakistan. The Modi government will also say that Russian weapons options are too expensive, according to people familiar with the situation, who asked not to be identified as they are not authorized to speak to the media.
India operates more than 250 Su-30 MKi Russian-made fighter jets, seven Kilo-class submarines and more than 1,200 Russian-made T-90 tanks – all of which are operational for another decade, the people said. There are weapons systems worth about $10 billion in the pipeline, including nuclear submarines leased to India and batteries for the S-400 air defense system.
India’s defense ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside regular business hours.
“Despite diversification efforts, India’s military hardware is still about 70% Russian,” said Manjari Chatterjee Miller, senior fellow for India, Pakistan and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of “Why Nations Rise: Narratives and the Path.” said. for great power. India “has to depend on Russia for parts, maintenance and upgrades,” he said.
The cost of replacing all its Russian-origin equipment for India is daunting. India’s overall defense budget for 2021-22 is estimated at $70 billion, and a long-delayed plan to replenish its fleet and procure 114 fighter jets to replace some of the older Russian fighter jets is estimated to have cost the domestic Even if produced at scale, the cost to India would be between $15 billion and $18 billion. People said.
Ian Hall, professor of international relations at Griffith University and author of “Modi and the Reinvention of Indian Foreign Policy,” said New Delhi also lacks options to replace military systems, such as air defense platforms, that can easily be replaced elsewhere. Can’t get it.”
While India supported calls for a ceasefire and a diplomatic solution, it avoided votes in the United Nations for draft resolutions condemning Russia’s invasion, which were eventually vetoed by Moscow. Still, so far the US and its allies have tried to avoid an open rift with India: a joint statement after Quad leaders spoke in the wake of Putin’s invasion failed to condemn Russia.
This is largely because India remains a key partner in countering China, especially after deadly skirmishes on their Himalayan border prompted Modi to move more troops and Russian weapons to key hotspots. India has also changed laws to restrict Chinese companies and investment, banned more than 300 China-affiliated mobile applications and cut visas for Chinese businessmen as the border standoff escalated.
On March 2, Donald Lu, assistant secretary of state in the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, told a US Senate committee whether India could face sanctions for buying Russian weapons, “India is now really one of ours.” Important security partner.”
“We value moving forward in that partnership,” he said, adding that India had recently put the brakes on more orders for Russian MiG-29 fighter jets, helicopters and anti-tank weapons. “And I hope that part of the extreme criticism Russia has faced is that India will find time to distance itself.”
India is keen to prevent Russia from getting even closer to Pakistan, which is more likely if Modi’s government joins US allies in denouncing President Vladimir Putin. India and Pakistan have fought three wars and their armies are on high alert.
Last month, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan led the country’s first delegation in two decades to Moscow, just as Putin’s offensive was underway. Last year, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Pakistan as Moscow sought to raise its stature in the region, particularly in Afghanistan following the chaotic US withdrawal.
Pakistan was the world’s eighth largest arms buyer in 2017-2021, with Russia accounting for a small portion of imports. According to Richard M. Rosso, Wadhwani Chair in US-India Policy Studies at The Center for Strategic and International Studies, India is concerned that more acquisitions of Russian weapons “could bring a qualitative advantage to Pakistan”.
Still, India would find it difficult to maintain a “truly neutral position” without alienating the US and other Quad countries, said Miller of the Council on Foreign Relations, as Russia saw New Delhi’s position as “tacit support”. Is.
“The Ukraine crisis is not a geographically limited regional European crisis that does not affect India,” she said. “This has implications for the future of the liberal international order.”