India’s GDP to grow by 9% in FY22 and FY23: ICRA

The Indian economy is expected to sustain a real GDP growth of 9% in FY 2012 and FY 2013, amid uncertainty arising from the Omicron variant of the Covid-19-causing virus, ICRA said in a report. said in.

It said that the available data for the third quarter of the current financial year did not provide convincing evidence that the Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee’s criteria for sustainable and sustainable growth recovery were met, in order to confirm the change in policy stance. To be ‘neutral’. The next meeting of the panel will be in February 2022.

Aditi Nair, Chief Economist, ICRA Ltd., said, “The figures for October-November 2021 do not indicate a broad-based basis for improving growth in India.” Demand for grants, the pace of real government spending are likely to determine whether the pace of GDP growth exceeds 6.0-6.5% in a meaningful way in Q3 FY22,” she said.

Similar to the trend seen in the second quarter, volumes for seven of the 13 high-frequency indicators rose above their pre-Covid levels in October-November 2021. However, volumes contracted for the remaining six as compared to October-November 2019. , suggesting that the recovery was not yet broad-based, she said.

New restrictions being introduced by several states to contain the spread of COVID-19 could temporarily hamper economic recovery, especially in contact-intensive areas in the fourth quarter, Ms Nair said .

“There is a clear K-shaped divergence between the formal and informal parts of the economy,” he said, with larger gains at the expense of smaller ones.

“The expansion in FY23 is expected to be more meaningful and tangible than the base effect-led growth in FY2012. Based on our assumptions of GDP growth if the COVID-19 pandemic had not emerged, the actual shrinkage in FY 2011 and the expected recovery in the next two years, the net loss to the Indian economy from the pandemic during FY 2011-23 Has happened. Estimated ₹39.3 trillion in real terms,” he added.