There are risks that can be both domestic and geopolitical and New Delhi must take care to read the signs properly
There is an intense debate among political strategists and commentators about what 2022 holds. Most people believe that a rules-based international order is a remote possibility. Instead, uncertainty and instability are likely to be the dominant factor in world affairs.
Risks in 2022 could be both domestic and geopolitical, with many preaching that the world has been accustomed to being at risk. Democracy itself may have to face serious challenges this year.
A paramount issue is the future of democracy as 2022 begins. Of course, the world has recently seen the rise of authoritarian rulers in many countries – although this in itself can hardly be seen as a new phenomenon. What is worrying is that democratic principles that have come under attack in recent years are set to face more attacks this year. Adding to the concerns about the future of democracy, is that the United States, which was widely seen as a major shield for democracy, has developed some pathological infirmities. This situation does not bode well for the future of democracy across the world.
China as a disruptor
As we enter 2022, the geopolitical challenges and risks are equally daunting. Given the challenges facing the current international order, China’s role is perhaps the most disruptive. With a GDP of $15.66 trillion in 2020, its net worth is estimated to be higher than that of the US today; And, therefore, it demands to be recognized as much. Militarily, China is openly challenging US supremacy in several areas, including “state-of-the-art weapons” such as hyper-sonic technology.
China has abandoned its ‘one country two system’ policy, which has taken away Hong Kong’s independence and invited international protest. It is now threatening Taiwan, which could become one of the flash points of the conflict in 2022. Meanwhile, the West does not realize what could happen if the stakes of ‘cross-strait ties’ between China and Taiwan get high in 2022. Well, to ‘save face’ with respect to Taiwan (which China considers its territory), China could provoke a serious conflict.
Further deterioration in China’s economic profile over the past year (which China hardly acknowledges) could lead to new tensions in the Asia-Pacific region in 2022. To outsiders, the Chinese economy has entered a period of relative uncertainty and is looking more vulnerable. Under Chinese President Xi Jinping, however, China is unlikely to admit that this will reduce its military capabilities, at least as far as the Asia-Pacific is concerned. Instead, it may be tempted to demonstrate that it still has the ability to outperform the US in the Pacific – where it has more cards than the US – and also demonstrate that it has the ability to enhance its military capabilities. while the US is reducing its forces in the Indo-Pacific. Uncertainty In factcan cause serious danger.
Russia-Ukraine conflict
The second major risk of war in 2022 stems from the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine – the latter backed by US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces. It is difficult to understand which side is engaged in provocation, but what is not contested is that during the past three decades, NATO, in violation of previously tacit understanding, has extended its reach some 1,000 miles east. is extended. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears determined that Ukraine should be the ‘last frontier’ and, if necessary, ensure it through military force. The situation has serious potential and could result in a series of cyclical consequences with the potential for significant losses.
Apart from the grave risk of potential war or conflict, it is also clear that ‘peace is not at hand’ in vast areas of the world in 2022. The current unrest in Kazakhstan, which until recently was one of the more stable central. The Asian nation is probably a symptom of what’s in store. Whether or not recent events in Kazakhstan represent a new round of ‘color revolution’, it reflects a sharp rift between the US-led West and its main adversaries, Russia and China. It is ill-fated for a world already ravaged by a series of coups or internal conflicts in Ethiopia, Libya and some regions of West Asia and North Africa.
return of taliban
Of particular importance to India is that the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan has brought about a physical shift in the balance of power in an already troubled region on India’s periphery. Despite the common belief that the return of the Taliban to power represents a significant victory for Pakistan, it has recently become clear that it comes with a lot of baggage for Pakistan and much of Asia. Developments in Afghanistan have fueled the ambitions of some ‘anti-state extremist groups’ across the region. In Pakistan too, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has become active and is expanding its operations in other parts of Asia, especially Kazakhstan. More importantly, it is well known that the TTP is a by-product of al Qaeda jihadist politics and still has secret ties to al Qaeda. This will have destabilizing effects in large parts of Asia.
Adding to such concerns is new evidence that in the eastern part of India, i.e, Indonesia, there is a resurgence of radical Islamic activities. Jemah Islamia has reportedly become more active in Indonesia. All this provides fertile ground for other radical Islamist terrorist groups to increase their activities in the Asian region, providing impetus to groups such as the Islamic State, particularly the Islamic State of Khorasan.
border issues for india
As 2022 begins, India’s problems are likely to intensify. The most serious issue India is facing today is how to deal with China which has become more confrontational. Violations across the Line of Actual Control in various areas in Ladakh – which until now were seen as an attempt by China to try and limit India’s options – could well be extended into 2022. India’s four-nation quad (the U.S., Japan, Australia and India) still ranks as far as China’s psyche is concerned, and during 2022, China will build new positions at several more points along the India-China border. may initiate bold actions, forcing India to react. Therefore, Ladakh, Arunachal Pradesh and the central region are unlikely to see any reduction in tension in 2022.
Additionally, India will need to determine how best to respond to China’s saber-rattling. India will need to develop a strategy on how to counter China’s promotion of its low-yield nuclear weapons, which are for use on the battlefield during conventional military operations and also against conventional targets . India will need to strengthen its military posture as a means to deter China and to convince India’s neighbors that it can counter China. Simultaneously, India cannot avoid placing itself in a suitable position to prevent China’s naval force launch in the Indian Ocean region in 2022 and to promote the addition of a new type of nuclear power ballistic missile submarines to its existing fleet. Is. In a battle of intelligence and strength, a lot will depend on how India responds to the situation.
Diplomatically, in 2022, India may feel vulnerable in dealing with the turmoil in two areas of its strategic interest, In other words Central Asia and West Asia. There is churn going on in both the areas – all this is not to the liking of India. In Central Asia, India will face the challenge of best managing its traditional friendship with Russia with the apparent tilt seen recently in Indo-US relations. In West Asia, the challenge for India is how to manage its membership of the second quad (India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and the US) with the conflicting interests of different players in the region. Membership of the Quad makes India a key player in a region that has become a quagmire of intense rivalry despite the 2020 Abrahamic Agreement. Indian diplomacy will be tested hard to manage the current situation in both the regions.
walkway
It is easy to say that what India and India’s foreign policy needs to do is demonstrate greater flexibility to manage the contradictions that exist. However, in most cases this is practically impossible. There is a limit to the kind of balancing act India can take, whether it is with regard to buying S-400 missile systems from Russia, risking potential sanctions from Washington under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) Or to do maneuvers among Arabs. States in West Asia, Israel, Iran and the U.S.
For India, the outlook, therefore, is not particularly bright in 2022. No grand strategy is clear as of now, but it is important that India finds rational answers to problems it cannot keep on the back burner for long. What India should do is avoid blind spots arising due to cognitive bias and take care to read the signs properly. Faced with unprecedented challenges, India’s leaders and diplomats must not only take stock of the current threats, but must also be prepared to manage the apparent risks clearly.
MK Narayanan is a former Director, Intelligence Bureau, former National Security Advisor and former Governor of West Bengal.
India’s keywords not so bright in 2022
There are risks that can be both domestic and geopolitical and New Delhi must take care to read the signs properly
There is an intense debate among political strategists and commentators about what 2022 holds. Most people believe that a rules-based international order is a remote possibility. Instead, uncertainty and instability are likely to be the dominant factor in world affairs.
Risks in 2022 could be both domestic and geopolitical, with many preaching that the world has been accustomed to being at risk. Democracy itself may have to face serious challenges this year.
A paramount issue is the future of democracy as 2022 begins. Of course, the world has recently seen the rise of authoritarian rulers in many countries – although this in itself can hardly be seen as a new phenomenon. What is worrying is that democratic principles that have come under attack in recent years are set to face more attacks this year. Adding to the concerns about the future of democracy, is that the United States, which was widely seen as a major shield for democracy, has developed some pathological infirmities. This situation does not bode well for the future of democracy across the world.
China as a disruptor
As we enter 2022, the geopolitical challenges and risks are equally daunting. Given the challenges facing the current international order, China’s role is perhaps the most disruptive. With a GDP of $15.66 trillion in 2020, its net worth is estimated to be higher than that of the US today; And, therefore, it demands to be recognized as much. Militarily, China is openly challenging US supremacy in several areas, including “state-of-the-art weapons” such as hyper-sonic technology.
China has abandoned its ‘one country two system’ policy, which has taken away Hong Kong’s independence and invited international protest. It is now threatening Taiwan, which could become one of the flash points of the conflict in 2022. Meanwhile, the West does not realize what could happen if the stakes of ‘cross-strait ties’ between China and Taiwan get high in 2022. Well, to ‘save face’ with respect to Taiwan (which China considers its territory), China could provoke a serious conflict.
Further deterioration in China’s economic profile over the past year (which China hardly acknowledges) could lead to new tensions in the Asia-Pacific region in 2022. To outsiders, the Chinese economy has entered a period of relative uncertainty and is looking more vulnerable. Under Chinese President Xi Jinping, however, China is unlikely to admit that this will reduce its military capabilities, at least as far as the Asia-Pacific is concerned. Instead, it may be tempted to demonstrate that it still has the ability to outperform the US in the Pacific – where it has more cards than the US – and also demonstrate that it has the ability to enhance its military capabilities. while the US is reducing its forces in the Indo-Pacific. Uncertainty In factcan cause serious danger.
Russia-Ukraine conflict
The second major risk of war in 2022 stems from the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine – the latter backed by US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces. It is difficult to understand which side is engaged in provocation, but what is not contested is that during the past three decades, NATO, in violation of previously tacit understanding, has extended its reach some 1,000 miles east. is extended. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears determined that Ukraine should be the ‘last frontier’ and, if necessary, ensure it through military force. The situation has serious potential and could result in a series of cyclical consequences with the potential for significant losses.
Apart from the grave risk of potential war or conflict, it is also clear that ‘peace is not at hand’ in vast areas of the world in 2022. The current unrest in Kazakhstan, which until recently was one of the more stable central. The Asian nation is probably a symptom of what’s in store. Whether or not recent events in Kazakhstan represent a new round of ‘color revolution’, it reflects a sharp rift between the US-led West and its main adversaries, Russia and China. It is ill-fated for a world already ravaged by a series of coups or internal conflicts in Ethiopia, Libya and some regions of West Asia and North Africa.
return of taliban
Of particular importance to India is that the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan has brought about a physical shift in the balance of power in an already troubled region on India’s periphery. Despite the common belief that the return of the Taliban to power represents a significant victory for Pakistan, it has recently become clear that it comes with a lot of baggage for Pakistan and much of Asia. Developments in Afghanistan have fueled the ambitions of some ‘anti-state extremist groups’ across the region. In Pakistan too, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has become active and is expanding its operations in other parts of Asia, especially Kazakhstan. More importantly, it is well known that the TTP is a by-product of al Qaeda jihadist politics and still has secret ties to al Qaeda. This will have destabilizing effects in large parts of Asia.
Adding to such concerns is new evidence that in the eastern part of India, i.e, Indonesia, there is a resurgence of radical Islamic activities. Jemah Islamia has reportedly become more active in Indonesia. All this provides fertile ground for other radical Islamist terrorist groups to increase their activities in the Asian region, providing impetus to groups such as the Islamic State, particularly the Islamic State of Khorasan.
border issues for india
As 2022 begins, India’s problems are likely to intensify. The most serious issue India is facing today is how to deal with China which has become more confrontational. Violations across the Line of Actual Control in various areas in Ladakh – which until now were seen as an attempt by China to try and limit India’s options – could well be extended into 2022. India’s four-nation quad (the U.S., Japan, Australia and India) still ranks as far as China’s psyche is concerned, and during 2022, China will build new positions at several more points along the India-China border. may initiate bold actions, forcing India to react. Therefore, Ladakh, Arunachal Pradesh and the central region are unlikely to see any reduction in tension in 2022.
Additionally, India will need to determine how best to respond to China’s saber-rattling. India will need to develop a strategy on how to counter China’s promotion of its low-yield nuclear weapons, which are for use on the battlefield during conventional military operations and also against conventional targets . India will need to strengthen its military posture as a means to deter China and to convince India’s neighbors that it can counter China. Simultaneously, India cannot avoid placing itself in a suitable position to prevent China’s naval force launch in the Indian Ocean region in 2022 and to promote the addition of a new type of nuclear power ballistic missile submarines to its existing fleet. Is. In a battle of intelligence and strength, a lot will depend on how India responds to the situation.
Diplomatically, in 2022, India may feel vulnerable in dealing with the turmoil in two areas of its strategic interest, In other words Central Asia and West Asia. There is churn going on in both the areas – all this is not to the liking of India. In Central Asia, India will face the challenge of best managing its traditional friendship with Russia with the apparent tilt seen recently in Indo-US relations. In West Asia, the challenge for India is how to manage its membership of the second quad (India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and the US) with the conflicting interests of different players in the region. Membership of the Quad makes India a key player in a region that has become a quagmire of intense rivalry despite the 2020 Abrahamic Agreement. Indian diplomacy will be tested hard to manage the current situation in both the regions.
walkway
It is easy to say that what India and India’s foreign policy needs to do is demonstrate greater flexibility to manage the contradictions that exist. However, in most cases this is practically impossible. There is a limit to the kind of balancing act India can take, whether it is with regard to buying S-400 missile systems from Russia, risking potential sanctions from Washington under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) Or to do maneuvers among Arabs. States in West Asia, Israel, Iran and the U.S.
For India, the outlook, therefore, is not particularly bright in 2022. No grand strategy is clear as of now, but it is important that India finds rational answers to problems it cannot keep on the back burner for long. What India should do is avoid blind spots arising due to cognitive bias and take care to read the signs properly. Faced with unprecedented challenges, India’s leaders and diplomats must not only take stock of the current threats, but must also be prepared to manage the apparent risks clearly.
MK Narayanan is a former Director, Intelligence Bureau, former National Security Advisor and former Governor of West Bengal.
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