Even as the January-March 2022 quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures are due to be released on May 31, a wide range of analysts growth forecast Up 2.7 percent to 4.5 percent for the quarter. SBI expects growth of 2.7 percent For the fourth quarter of 2021-22, rating agency Icra saw a growth of 3.5 per cent, and CRISIL forecast a growth of 4.5 per cent. What various analysts expect with respect to GDP forecast:
ICRA Forecast for Q4
ICRA expects year-on-year (YoY) growth in GDP to moderate from 3.5 per cent in Q4 FY2022 to 5.4 per cent in Q3 FY2022 on margins due to impact of higher commodity prices, decline in wheat yield and hiccups. The reason would be In the recovery of contact-intensive services due to the high base along with the third wave of COVID-19 in India.
“We expect both agriculture and industry to register sub-1 per cent GVA (Gross Value Added) growth in the fourth quarter of FY 2022, while services growth is expected to be around 5.4 per cent in that quarter. Encouragingly, relative to the respective pre-COVID-19 quarter of FY19, GDP growth is expected to remain healthy at 8.6 per cent in Q4 FY2022 as against 9.4 per cent in Q3 FY2022. We anticipate an annual expansion in real GDP at 8.5 per cent (as against NSO’s projection of 8.9%) in FY22, which is 1.3 per cent higher than FY20 levels,” it said in its latest report. .
SBI Forecast for Q4
SBI Research expects India’s GDP to grow by 2.7 per cent in the March 2022 quarter, adding that the GDP estimates for the fourth quarter of FY22 are fraught with significant uncertainties. “We anticipate GDP growth at 8.5 per cent for FY12 and 2.7 per cent in Q4 of FY12. However, we believe that the GDP projection for Q4 FY22 is surrounded by significant uncertainties. For example, despite a fall in the GDP estimates for the first quarter of FY22 from 20.3 per cent to 1 per cent, with all other things remaining unchanged, the fourth quarter GDP growth rate could be at 3.8 per cent,” it said.
SBI Ecowrap said economic activity, which gained strength in Q2 FY22 with a second wave of declines, has lost momentum since Q3, accelerated by the spread of the Omicron variant in Q4. However, the beneficial effects of the rapid fluctuating transition have been overwhelmed by geopolitical confrontations since February 2022. CPI inflation moved above the upper tolerance band as adverse base effects coincide with the onset of a supply shock as the conflict escalates.
Q4. CRISIL forecast for
Rating agency Crisil’s chief economist DK Joshi said it expects GDP to grow at 4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal.
Reuters poll for Q4 GDP growth
Growth in Asia’s third-largest economy was at 4 per cent for the January-March quarter, down from 5.4 per cent in Q4 2021 in a Reuters poll of 46 economists on May 23-26 in the same period a year ago.
India’s GDP grew by 5.4 per cent in the December 2021 quarter, down from 8.4 per cent growth in the previous quarter. However, this was much higher than the 0.5 per cent growth seen in the corresponding period of the previous financial year 2020-21. GDP grew by 1.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of FY11.
In its April monetary policy review, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revised its GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.2 per cent, as against the earlier forecast of 7.8 per cent. Its governor Shaktikanta Das said “rising geopolitical tensions have cast a shadow over our economic outlook”.
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