IPCC hears another climate warning

the story So Far: On 27 February, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a major report reviewing scientific evidence on the natural, ecological, social and economic sectors, concluding that climate change has already caused irreversible loss and damage to land, Coastal and marine ecosystems have been damaged. ,

This new report, which assesses the planet’s prospects if global mean surface temperatures exceed 1.5 °C since the pre-industrial era, warns of dire consequences for the food supply, human health, biodiversity loss and the integrity of the natural environment. If carbon emissions are not sharply reduced by human activities, and governments lack the political will to review their policies.

What are the main features of the report?

Using a timeline of the near-term, mid-term and long-term impacts of climate change as average temperatures exceed 1.5 °C, Working Group II proposes urgent action that world leaders must take. The WG II report, titled “Impacts, Adaptations and Vulnerabilities”, is among three expert publications that contribute to the IPCC’s Composite Assessment Report 6, due in September 2022. A report was published last year.

The scientific assessment is that 3.3 to 3.6 billion people “live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change.” This includes people living along the coast who are at risk from rising sea levels and extreme weather events such as cyclones and floods. Clearly, India has many populous coastal cities, including Mumbai and Chennai, that play an important role in manufacturing, exports and services, and the IPCC’s assessment points to the need for policy review to help them adapt .

The IPCC’s findings are classified from ‘very high confidence’ to ‘low confidence’ depending on the strength of the evidence. One area where the data inspires ‘high confidence’ is human pressure on habitat. “Globally, and even within protected areas, continued use of natural resources, habitat fragmentation, and ecosystem damage by pollutants increase the vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change,” it says. Is. Overall, less than 15% of the world’s land, 21% freshwater and 8% oceans are protected.

What are the dangers?

As a fundamental determinant of human well-being and progress, food production faces climate threats. On this, scientists describe agricultural development contributing to food security as a stressor with “unbalanced diets, driven by unbalanced diets” that increase ecosystem and human vulnerability, leading to loss of land and water. There is competition.

The forecast for a 2 °C (or worse) warmer world is dire and the report says that with higher global warming levels in the medium term (from 2041–60), food security risks due to climate change “will be more severe, sub- Malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies concentrated in Sahara Africa, South Asia, Central and South America, and small islands.

However, there are customization options, which should form part of the inclusive policy. These include increasing food production through agricultural reform, agro-forestry, community-based adaptation, farm and landscape diversification, and urban agriculture.

Applying principles of agroecology (a holistic approach using ecological and social concepts to sustainable agriculture), ecosystem-based management in fisheries and aquaculture, and using natural processes to improve food security, nutrition, health, Livelihoods, biodiversity, sustainability and ecosystem services can improve. The IPCC report argued.

In the current state, between 3% and 14% of all species on Earth are at very high risk of extinction even at 1.5 °C, with catastrophic losses at higher temperatures. It will also have an impact through ecological disasters.

Are there any policy tips?

Cautioning, the report said that between 2010-2020, human mortality from floods, droughts and hurricanes was 15 times higher in highly vulnerable areas than in very less vulnerable areas. South Asia is a hotspot, as it has the largest number of people displaced by extreme weather, along with Southeast Asia and East Asia, as well as Sub-Saharan Africa.

There are signs for India. Heavy rainfall has increased over most of the Indian subcontinent, and Chennai, Chittagong, Dhaka and Mumbai as well as the Gangetic Plain and the Delhi-Lahore Corridor are seen as future migration hotspots.

Some possible remedial measures are heat health action plans that include early warning and response systems for extreme heat. The risks of water-borne and food-borne diseases in populated areas can be met by improved access to potable water, reducing the risk of water and sanitation systems to floods and extreme weather events, as well as improved early warning systems. could.

The IPCC calls for mainstreaming adaptation functions into institutional budgeting and policy planning, creating statutory processes, monitoring and evaluation frameworks, and recovery measures during disasters. In addition, “behavioral incentives and economic tools that address market failures, such as climate risk disclosure, inclusive and deliberate procedures, strengthen adaptation actions by public and private actors,” it says.

What are the alternatives for climate friendly development?

In the IPCC’s assessment, the opportunity to keep the increase in temperature below 1.5 °C seems to be diminishing. There is already a consensus that under current pledges by governments that have signed the Paris Agreement, this goal is impossible, and that average temperatures could rise by as much as 3 °C, with disastrous consequences.

Climate resilient development is the answer, and it will align all paths toward sharp reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the institution of measures to absorb most of the CO2 stock in the atmosphere, and adequate climate finance for adaptation.

Here, the IPCC says, the global trend of urbanization offers immediate, important opportunities to advance climate resilient development. Coastal cities and settlements play an important role.

What may not work, however, is energy-intensive and market-based urbanisation. Neither would there be a misplaced and misdirected finance, as well as a misplaced focus on gray infrastructure rather than ecological and social perspectives. Incorrect policies in areas such as housing can, in fact, hinder maltreatment, particularly affecting poorer communities. Poor land use policies, tacit attitudes towards health, ecological and social planning also affect resilient development. The rest of the current decade is crucial in moving the world down the low carbon path, the report said.