Baghdad: Eight months after the national election, Iraq There is still no government and there seems to be no clear way out of the dreaded impasse.
Political elites are embroiled in a strangling competition for power, even as the country faces growing challenges, including an impending food crisis as a result of severe drought and the war in Ukraine.
For ordinary Iraqis, everything is delayed. The caretaker government is unable to draft plans for significant electricity payments or badly needed investments before the grim summer months. to invest water infrastructure upgrade are stuck Unemployment, insufficiency of water And concerns about food security are drawing people’s anger.
It was held months earlier than expected, in response to mass protests in late 2019 and saw thousands rally against endemic corruption, poor services and unemployment.
The vote brought victory for powerful Shia cleric Muktada al-Sadr and a blow to his Iran-backed Shia rivals, who lost almost two-thirds of its seats And the results are discarded.
Decades of personal vendetta underscored the Shia rivalry, pitting al-Sadr and his Kurdish and Sunni allies against the coordination framework on one side, coalitions led by Iran-backed Shia parties and their allies on the other. There are independents in the middle, dividing themselves between attempts by rival factions to woo them to either side.
“It’s not about power, it’s about survival,” said Sajjad Ziad, an Iraq-based fellow at The Century Foundation.
Meanwhile, anger among the Iraqi public is rising as food prices rise and power cuts worsen.
Last month, caretaker prime minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi was forced to leave Baghdad A famous poet was cremated after some bereaved people raised anti-government slogans and pelted stones at the convoy of other government officials.
“The political impediment affects the work of the government and the state and lowers the morale of citizens,” al-Kadhimi told reporters on Tuesday.
UN Envoy to Iraq Jeanine Hennis-Plaschert, Iraqi political leaders warned last month that “the roads are about to boil” and that the national interest was “taking a backseat to short-sighted ideas of control over resources.”
Al-Sadr, whose party won the most seats in the election, has not been able to field enough MPs to contest. Parliament To obtain the necessary two-thirds majority for an election Iraq’s next president An essential step before the selection of the next prime minister’s name and cabinet.
Al-Sadr’s tripartite coalition includes Takadam, the Sunni party led by Mohamed Halbowsi, who was elected parliament speaker in January, and the Kurdish Democratic Party, led by Masoud Barzani. The bloc is intent on forming a majority government, which would be the first since the 2003 US invasion of Iraq introduced a consensus-based power-sharing system to oust dictator Saddam Hussein.
The government will exclude Iran-backed Shiite rivals of the coordination framework, including former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State Law and the Kurdistan Party’s Kurdish Patriotic Association.
Both al-Sadr and al-Maliki, long-time bitter political opponents, have built up loyalists in all ministries to advance their political agenda and fear that if in power, the other will use up state resources. – Including the judiciary, anti-corruption committees – rival institutions to purge.
In addition, al-Sadr and Qais al-Khazali, whose powerful Iranian-backed militias are part of the Framework Coalition, are engaged in a deadly feud, with assassination campaigns targeting members of their militias in Iraq’s Shiite southern heartland. .
Paradoxically, the current impasse is partly the result of parties moving away from communal-oriented groups. In the past, Shia alliances formed a united front to negotiate with Sunni and Kurdish factions. But this time the alliances have crossed communal boundaries, increasing tensions within each sect.
In the absence of a deal, many fear large grassroots protests against al-Sadr and possible conflicts with Iran-backed militias.
In a May 16 speech, a clearly dismayed al-Sadr vowed never to compromise with his rivals. He also noted the capabilities of his own militia, the Saraya Salam, which recently opened doors to recruits in the Babylonian and Diyala provinces.
Al-Sadr was also angered by a recent Iraqi Supreme Court ruling that barred the caretaker government from making and passing laws. This effectively eliminated an emergency food bill required to use public money to pay for food items and buy energy from Iran for the caretaker government in the absence of a budget.
Al-Sadr, who pioneered the bill, saw the court’s decision as leaning toward the framework. However, in a minor victory for al-Sadr, parliament convened late Wednesday and passed the Food Security Bill.
Iraqi militia leaders speak privately about concerns that the standoff could ignite street protests by al-Sadr’s supporters and lead to violence between them and rival armed Shiite militias.
Iraq has in the past seen protracted political wrangling between rival groups over choosing a new president and prime minister, although the current impasse over the presidential election is the longest yet.
This time, Iran has not been able to mend the rifts between Shia rivals – a role that would have fallen to top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a US drone strike in January 2020. At least three trips to Iraq by Soleimani. The successor to mediate among the Shias failed to achieve any success.
Recently Tehran has cut gas exports to Baghdad by 5 million cubic meters. citing non-payment issues, Iraq’s Electricity Minister Adel Karim told The Associated Press last month that he did not know how Iraq would pay its nearly $1.7 billion dues before the scorching summer months.
Meanwhile, the independents – parties drawn from the 2019 protest movement that went under the so-called intertwined list and won nine seats in the 329-seat legislature – seem to have lost. He took an oath to be a strong opposition force to represent the demands of the protesters in Parliament.
The head of the movement, Ala Rikabi, recently froze his position after members resigned over their vote in favor of electing Halbowsi as parliament speaker. Protesters see Halboussi as a participant in the killings of activists during the protests.
Rasool al-Saray, a spokesman for Imtidad, said the two Shia factions wanted to use independents “to cover up their failure to form a government”.
Some independent candidates have said that they have faced threats and fear for their lives; Forest said he was offered tens of thousands of dollars in bribes to ally with the anti-Sadar group. The independents spoke anonymously for fear of their own safety.
With the consensus government likely to dwindle, some have called for the option of fresh elections.
But Century Fellow Ziad disagrees.
“It’s starting from zero and there’s a risk to everyone,” he said.
Political elites are embroiled in a strangling competition for power, even as the country faces growing challenges, including an impending food crisis as a result of severe drought and the war in Ukraine.
For ordinary Iraqis, everything is delayed. The caretaker government is unable to draft plans for significant electricity payments or badly needed investments before the grim summer months. to invest water infrastructure upgrade are stuck Unemployment, insufficiency of water And concerns about food security are drawing people’s anger.
It was held months earlier than expected, in response to mass protests in late 2019 and saw thousands rally against endemic corruption, poor services and unemployment.
The vote brought victory for powerful Shia cleric Muktada al-Sadr and a blow to his Iran-backed Shia rivals, who lost almost two-thirds of its seats And the results are discarded.
Decades of personal vendetta underscored the Shia rivalry, pitting al-Sadr and his Kurdish and Sunni allies against the coordination framework on one side, coalitions led by Iran-backed Shia parties and their allies on the other. There are independents in the middle, dividing themselves between attempts by rival factions to woo them to either side.
“It’s not about power, it’s about survival,” said Sajjad Ziad, an Iraq-based fellow at The Century Foundation.
Meanwhile, anger among the Iraqi public is rising as food prices rise and power cuts worsen.
Last month, caretaker prime minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi was forced to leave Baghdad A famous poet was cremated after some bereaved people raised anti-government slogans and pelted stones at the convoy of other government officials.
“The political impediment affects the work of the government and the state and lowers the morale of citizens,” al-Kadhimi told reporters on Tuesday.
UN Envoy to Iraq Jeanine Hennis-Plaschert, Iraqi political leaders warned last month that “the roads are about to boil” and that the national interest was “taking a backseat to short-sighted ideas of control over resources.”
Al-Sadr, whose party won the most seats in the election, has not been able to field enough MPs to contest. Parliament To obtain the necessary two-thirds majority for an election Iraq’s next president An essential step before the selection of the next prime minister’s name and cabinet.
Al-Sadr’s tripartite coalition includes Takadam, the Sunni party led by Mohamed Halbowsi, who was elected parliament speaker in January, and the Kurdish Democratic Party, led by Masoud Barzani. The bloc is intent on forming a majority government, which would be the first since the 2003 US invasion of Iraq introduced a consensus-based power-sharing system to oust dictator Saddam Hussein.
The government will exclude Iran-backed Shiite rivals of the coordination framework, including former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State Law and the Kurdistan Party’s Kurdish Patriotic Association.
Both al-Sadr and al-Maliki, long-time bitter political opponents, have built up loyalists in all ministries to advance their political agenda and fear that if in power, the other will use up state resources. – Including the judiciary, anti-corruption committees – rival institutions to purge.
In addition, al-Sadr and Qais al-Khazali, whose powerful Iranian-backed militias are part of the Framework Coalition, are engaged in a deadly feud, with assassination campaigns targeting members of their militias in Iraq’s Shiite southern heartland. .
Paradoxically, the current impasse is partly the result of parties moving away from communal-oriented groups. In the past, Shia alliances formed a united front to negotiate with Sunni and Kurdish factions. But this time the alliances have crossed communal boundaries, increasing tensions within each sect.
In the absence of a deal, many fear large grassroots protests against al-Sadr and possible conflicts with Iran-backed militias.
In a May 16 speech, a clearly dismayed al-Sadr vowed never to compromise with his rivals. He also noted the capabilities of his own militia, the Saraya Salam, which recently opened doors to recruits in the Babylonian and Diyala provinces.
Al-Sadr was also angered by a recent Iraqi Supreme Court ruling that barred the caretaker government from making and passing laws. This effectively eliminated an emergency food bill required to use public money to pay for food items and buy energy from Iran for the caretaker government in the absence of a budget.
Al-Sadr, who pioneered the bill, saw the court’s decision as leaning toward the framework. However, in a minor victory for al-Sadr, parliament convened late Wednesday and passed the Food Security Bill.
Iraqi militia leaders speak privately about concerns that the standoff could ignite street protests by al-Sadr’s supporters and lead to violence between them and rival armed Shiite militias.
Iraq has in the past seen protracted political wrangling between rival groups over choosing a new president and prime minister, although the current impasse over the presidential election is the longest yet.
This time, Iran has not been able to mend the rifts between Shia rivals – a role that would have fallen to top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a US drone strike in January 2020. At least three trips to Iraq by Soleimani. The successor to mediate among the Shias failed to achieve any success.
Recently Tehran has cut gas exports to Baghdad by 5 million cubic meters. citing non-payment issues, Iraq’s Electricity Minister Adel Karim told The Associated Press last month that he did not know how Iraq would pay its nearly $1.7 billion dues before the scorching summer months.
Meanwhile, the independents – parties drawn from the 2019 protest movement that went under the so-called intertwined list and won nine seats in the 329-seat legislature – seem to have lost. He took an oath to be a strong opposition force to represent the demands of the protesters in Parliament.
The head of the movement, Ala Rikabi, recently froze his position after members resigned over their vote in favor of electing Halbowsi as parliament speaker. Protesters see Halboussi as a participant in the killings of activists during the protests.
Rasool al-Saray, a spokesman for Imtidad, said the two Shia factions wanted to use independents “to cover up their failure to form a government”.
Some independent candidates have said that they have faced threats and fear for their lives; Forest said he was offered tens of thousands of dollars in bribes to ally with the anti-Sadar group. The independents spoke anonymously for fear of their own safety.
With the consensus government likely to dwindle, some have called for the option of fresh elections.
But Century Fellow Ziad disagrees.
“It’s starting from zero and there’s a risk to everyone,” he said.