Irrational looking covid behavior doesn’t always have to be like this

At the most basic level, inter-temporal substitution refers to the transfer of an action or event to a more appropriate or advantageous time. A classic example of economics is that people will buy more when there is a sale.

Now consider a more complex epidemiological example. Before the Covid vaccine arrived, it was great to see masking norms enforced. If infections can be transferred in the future, the ultimately vaccinated citizen will be better protected.

There is a less obvious result: the same masking criterion becomes less understood when large numbers of people are vaccinated. Masking will still lead to further infections in the future, but if vaccines become a little less effective over time, as some sets of data suggest, people may get a little worse later (they may even get a little older). will be). The result is that the masking case is less robust, even if you still think it’s a good idea overall.

Still, many people like to follow certain rules and principles. Once they learn them and lecture others about them, they are unlikely to change their minds. “Masking is good” is a simple rule. “How good masking really is depends on how secure the near future will be”. Still, the latter statement is about how economists are trained to think.

Another approach is to keep masking for too long—until there are better treatments once again, the virus has become less dangerous, or some other set of improvements in protection have set in. But what if there is no saying that the cavalry coming to the hill? Instead people will need to establish and adapt to whatever long-term living conditions they prefer, along with the concomitant risks. Denmark, one of the better-governed and well-vaccinated countries during the pandemic, has taken the exact same decision and announced a return to normalcy.

According to the logic of inter-temporary replacement, a lockdown makes the most sense before major safety improvements, such as vaccine coverage or additional hospital capacity, are achieved. In practice, however, it is precisely when an impatient citizen can demand an end to sanctions.

Inter-temporal replacement also helps explain why some people were relatively happy during the pandemic and others were not. If you didn’t go to the theater for two years, are you ready or able to go to the theater twice for two years? If you don’t have that kind of flexibility, you’ve probably lost more than average.

People take inter-temporary replacement more into consideration than public health officials like to admit. Let’s say it’s been a few weeks since your third dose (which hasn’t decreased in potency yet), and you feel relatively safe against the delta version. But you worry that there are going to be more dangerous variants coming next year. You can go out and take some ‘irregular’ risks. For you, it’s probably not going to be more secure anytime soon, and you don’t want to spend the rest of your life in a closet. Behavior that may seem silly is not necessarily so.

This way of thinking goes against the approach of public health officials, who insist on explicit restrictions for broad sections of people (fully vaccinated, not vaccinated, immune-compromised, etc.). But the reality is that people will take their pleasures for granted when they can, especially if they expect those pleasures to increase in the future.

Some of the consequences of inter-temporal replacement are a bit dire, and you won’t find many people willing to talk about them.

For example: Let’s say you’re immune-compromised, and you either can’t or won’t be able to get vaccinated. Maybe you’re paranoid about all those unvaccinated knuckleheads running around, getting COVID, and possibly infecting you. Also, you want to minimize your required degree of inter-temporal replacement. So if you’re (probably rightfully) too afraid to go out, you’re better off if those same knuckleheads gain natural immunity more quickly. Yes, it would be better if they get vaccinated. But barring that, it may be easier for you to manage a quick pandemic than a long, drawn-out epidemic that would require heroic amounts of inter-temporal replacement.

Speaking of which, as I am writing this, I am in Northern Ireland, it is morning, and shops and museums are closed. Did I mention that it is raining?

Tyler Cowen is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is a professor of economics at George Mason University and writes for the blog Marginal Revolution.