Karnataka: Will BJP be able to break the myth of 38 years?

No one will be able to stop the crowd. Not even the scorching heat or the four-hour wait to hear former Karnataka chief minister and party leader HD Kumaraswamy.

Karnataka state assembly elections are due on May 10 and frenetic campaigning has gathered pace in several districts. Srirangapatna, a constituency in the state’s Mandya district, has been maintained by the Janata Dal (S) since 2004. On that day, April 18, sitting member of the Legislative Assembly A.S. Ravindra Srikantaiah was ready to file his nomination in presence. of Kumaraswamy.

The former chief minister’s chopper skidded past the crowd before landing just after 2 pm. he was robbed; Supporters flocked to shake hands and take selfies. After the nomination papers were filed, he addressed them, asking them to vote for the party to “protect the interests of farmers and uphold Kannadiga pride”.

“Last time, we won this constituency by a margin of 43,000 votes. This time we will win with a bigger margin,” said H. Sridhar, a Janata Dal (S) supporter who came to hear Kumaraswamy. He believed that Srikantaiah had done a good job.

As Kumaraswamy left town, he must have been overjoyed by the support. And he would be hoping for similar support across Karnataka’s old Mysore region from where his party usually wins the majority of seats. If he wins big this time too, it could make him the kingmaker in the next government in the state. Don’t know if he will be able to form the government in the event of a hung assembly.

The Karnataka Legislative Assembly has 224 seats and a simple majority requires winning at least 113 constituencies. The 2018 elections saw the emergence of a hung assembly. The Janata Dal (S) formed a coalition government with the Congress. Kumaraswamy became the Chief Minister. But in 2019, the government fell due to defections of some elected members to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Due to which BJP came to power.

The Old Mysore region, originally part of the Madras Presidency before the post-independence states reorganization, consisted of Mysuru, Mandya, Hassan, Chamarajanagara, Bengaluru, Ramanagara, Kolar and Tumakuru districts. Bengaluru, with its 28 assembly seats, behaves differently because it is very urban. It is the remaining areas, mostly rural, comprising 61 assembly constituencies, that hold the key to the next government.

Peppermint Visited this area to feel the mood of the public. One thing has become clear. All the parties in the fray—the ruling BJP, the Congress and the Janata Dal (S)—are leaving no stone unturned to increase their numbers here.

Congress vs JD(S)

In a repeat of what we saw in Srirangapatna, enthusiastic supporters gathered in front of Siddaramaiah’s house in Mysore. The Congress leader and former Chief Minister along with Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee President DK Shivakumar are once again aspirants for the post.

At around 5 pm on 18 April, Siddaramaiah met party workers from his constituency Varuna before filing his nomination the next day. He sat on the terrace, where about 200 supporters made their way through despite efforts by his security to stop him.

In the Old Mysore region, it is a straight fight between the Congress and the Janata Dal (S). It is difficult for BJP to make inroads here. It has no leader from here,” Siddaramaiah said. Peppermint, He is confident that his party will win more than 140 of the 224 seats in the assembly.

“People have decided to give full mandate to the Congress. The anti-incumbency wave against the BJP is very strong and Karnataka has suffered a lot due to the BJP government’s corruption, price rise, unemployment, lack of development, unstable government and poor administration. (The same party in power both at the Center and the state) has only given the party a double anti-incumbency wave as the Center had deprived the state of its rightful share of funds, he alleged.

About 10 km from Mysore city, Varuna is a traditional bastion of the Congress. The people of this predominantly agricultural region agree with Siddaramaiah’s views. Venkatamma, 73, who runs a small shop, blames the ruling party for all her problems, especially inflation. “BJP is responsible for the increase in the prices of cooking oil, pulses, gas cylinders and petrol. They have reduced the quantity of free rice supplied through ration shops from 10 kg per family per month to 5 kg, Venkatamma said.

His lively conversation with this writer attracted the crowd. And almost everyone present there agreed with Venkatamma.

While the discontent against the BJP government in the state is genuine, it is not clear whether it will translate into votes for the Congress. He said, ‘There is no visible wave in support of the Congress. Professor of Policy and Governance at Azim Premji University, A. “Whether there is a strong undercurrent or not, we will know only after the elections,” Narayan said. He said that the Congress has been unable to present itself as a strong alternative.

This explains why the party has announced several freebies or ‘guarantees’ to turn the tide in its favour. it has promised 2,000 per month for each female head of household; free travel for women in public transport buses; 200 units of electricity free to every household; 10 kg rice per month per household; 3,000 per month for illiterate graduates and Rs 1,500 per month for two years to unemployed diploma holders between 18 and 25 years of age.

The BJP has reacted sharply to these freebies, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi attacking the Congress for the same.revdl‘ (subsidy) culture.

Senior journalist Sugata Srinivasaraju, who has written a biography of former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda, said, “It is shocking to announce welfare measures by the Congress, which looks more like a bailout.” unemployed youth,” he said.

Mohandas Pai, co-founder of Aarin Capital and chairman of Manipal Global Education Services, agreed. “Karnataka needs a stable government that focuses on infrastructure, higher education, skills, development of North Karnataka and improvement of Bengaluru,” he said. Only through development and not through freebies, he said. “Congress is out of touch with reality. The state is already taking 30,000 crore subsidy in its budget and these measures will worsen its fiscal position.”

BJP’s march

The BJP has traditionally been weak in the old Mysore region. In the 2018 elections, it fell short of a majority only because of its poor performance in the region.

This time, the ruling party has to win a good number of seats to overcome the anti-incumbency wave and retain power. Since 1985 (when Ramakrishna Hegde returned the Janata Dal to power), neither party has been re-elected in the state. To break this illusion of 38 years, BJP is engaged in a campaign to woo voters. Union Home Minister Amit Shah launched the party’s 2023 election campaign from the region. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already addressed a rally here. The BJP has highlighted its success with infrastructure projects such as the Bengaluru-Mysore Expressway to woo voters.

The 119-km expressway was inaugurated earlier this year and is expected to reduce travel time between the two cities from three hours to 75 minutes.

If there is one city in India that needs better infrastructure, it is Bengaluru. At 6 pm on 19 April, the city streets are full of people returning home from work. It is also a time for some spirited campaigning.

Karnataka’s Minister of Higher Education, IT & BT, Skill Development and Science & Technology CN Ashwath Narayan was in the middle’hikingIn Malleswaram, a predominantly Hindu constituency in north-west Bengaluru. He has won from here thrice.

As he walked the streets, he also entered apartments to meet people. He welcomed them. The party workers who accompanied him attributed this to his good work in the constituency. “The prospects for the BJP are very positive,” Narayan said. Peppermint, walk. He said, ‘People look towards the BJP for all-round development. We will get sufficient majority. Despite challenging times in Ukraine including COVID, floods, inflation and war, the state government has done a great job.”

When asked about the allegations of corruption against his government, he said they were baseless.

His views may differ from his own party’s assessment – ​​according to some experts, the BJP has accepted the fact that there is discontent against the current government led by Basavaraj Bommai.

He said, ‘BJP is once again taking support of Prime Minister Modi’s popularity to turn the tide. It has planned over 25 rallies that the Prime Minister will address between now and the Karnataka elections,” Srinivasa Raju said. Peppermint Last week.

Riding on the Modi factor, the BJP won 25 of the 28 seats in the state in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The question is whether it will work in assembly elections where the issues are local.

“The Modi factor is unlikely to work,” said KA Thippeswamy, a member of the Legislative Council representing the Janata Dal (S) and a former information commissioner under the Right to Information Act. Himself in front of the people on many issues,” he said.

The BJP tried to publicize fictional characters – Nanje Gowda and Uri Gowda – two Vokkaliga chieftains whom the party claimed killed Tipu Sultan. This was done to create a rift between the Muslims and the Janata Dal (S), the party supporting the Vokkaliga community. Also, the BJP wanted to divide the Vokkaliga votes by appealing to nationalist supporters within the community. “When this attempt failed, they made a hasty retreat. Now, they don’t talk about the issue at all,” Thippeswamy said.

The Vokkaliga community constitutes about 15% of the population of Karnataka. Lingayats are the dominant community in the state with about 17% of the population and traditionally vote for the BJP.

Then there was a great controversy. But the more the BJP is giving air to this issue, the more the opposition parties are taking advantage of it. The Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation decided to launch its Amul brand of products in Karnataka, but the move was seen as an attempt to destroy the local milk cooperative, Karnataka Milk Federation’s brand Nandini. Rumors surfaced of a possible attempt to reconcile Amul and Nandini. Thousands of farmers dependent on Nandini are now agitated.

As it stands now, the outcome of the election is uncertain as there are many unanswered questions. Can Modi do it in favor of BJP is one of them. The politics of the state has become communally divisive in recent times. It is not clear whether the 5.22 crore eligible voters will exercise their franchise on the basis of issues or on communal lines. Several leaders from the Lingayat community like Jagadish Shettar have left the BJP to join the Congress. Will this adversely affect the BJP? And can the party do well in the old Mysore region?

We will know the answer to this on May 13, when the counting of votes will take place. Right now, many people, including entrepreneurs, just want a stable government that can deliver good governance.