Amidst burning social issues, repeal of agricultural laws may not help BJP, while Congress and AAP are in a tight fight
Punjab is restless. It’s in pain. It feels frustrated by the politics of the state, its leaders and political parties. Its sense of political alienation from Delhi is evident. It desperately wants someone to trust. Someone is looking for it. Perhaps it even knows in the back of its mind that there is hardly anyone on whom it can depend. And finally, when the time comes, he has to choose a political platform that is less credible, and reluctantly settle for it for the next five years. Price rise, drug menace, unemployment, agricultural laws, decline in income, increase in theft, anarchy, desecration of sacred text afflicts its people. What is more painful for him is the perception that his political leaders and subsequent governments are indifferent to these issues. There is despair among the youth of the state. Even in small villages, there are shouting advertisements on the walls of agencies that provide visa and immigration assistance to Canada and Australia. Similarly for institutions that coach students for the International English Language Testing System (IELTS) test.
meeting a cross-section
A few months before the state assembly elections, this is the mood of the state that I gathered after an intense 10 days tour. I covered a distance of about 2,000 kilometres, traveling through the three main regions of the state – Malwa, Doaba and Majha. I met over 500 people representing almost all sections of society: men and women, rich and poor, young and old, farmers, labourers, unemployed, students, workers in villages and towns. Some individually and some in small groups. They were all wonderfully generous in expressing their views and taking their time. I also had long interactions with academicians from universities and research institutes. I deliberately avoided meeting political party leaders.
Impact of rollback of agricultural laws
On the morning of the last day of my visit, an unexpected announcement was made by the Prime Minister announcing his intention to repeal three agricultural laws. The immediate reaction of the man on the street was joy. However, I could not find any signs of lack of anger against the Prime Minister, his party and the central government.
In Punjab, the announcement of the repeal is unlikely to bring political gains to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The anger is intense; Wounds, raw In many conversations, the Prime Minister was described as less than respectable. The recent reopening of the Kartarpur Sahib Corridor has not generated the kind of goodwill that the state BJP leadership had hoped for. As the situation stands today, the BJP has little or no chance of being in the coming elections.
The Shiromani Akali Dal is viewed with suspicion because of its association with the BJP. The Akali Dal’s abandonment of the National Democratic Alliance over agricultural laws has not helped the party regain its lost political ground. Its cult support base is also unhappy due to the party’s inaction in tearing pages of the holy book of this incident, popularly known as the Bargari incident. The Akali Dal government did not punish the culprits. Instead it is seen as the government which opened fire on those protesting profanity. A large number of devout Sikhs have not yet forgiven the party for the death of two people in the firing. Many people who voted for the Akali Dal in the last assembly elections intend to move away from it this time. There are strong signs of further erosion of its support base. Those who intend to stick with it lack passion and continue to offer support without enthusiasm.
Congress is beating
There is a widespread feeling that the Congress government led by Captain Amarinder Singh has not delivered on its promises. Two things have been placed against the former Chief Minister. First, that they did not fulfill the promise they made to curb the drug menace. The fact that soon after assuming office, he took the oath of the Sikh holy scripture, Gutka Sahib, to assure the people that he would end the drug menace and yet failed to take firm action, he was given the public’s attention. Got angry. Second, he is seen as an insurmountable leader. Punjab is in no mood to include the Maharaja this time. The association with them does not add any political value to the BJP even after the repeal of three agricultural laws. Punjab saw the central government’s attack on agricultural laws as nothing more than a victory for the movement. And certainly not as a result of the Prime Minister’s generosity or Captain Amarinder Singh’s pressure on the central government. In this incident, the political party registered so far as the former Chief Minister is likely to be dead.
your chances
The recent significant political development in Punjab has been the replacement of Captain Amarinder Singh with Charanjit Singh Channi as the Chief Minister. Undoubtedly, the move will have an impact on the electoral fortunes of the Congress. By extension, this is likely to affect the prospects of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as well. Till the changing of the guard, AAP has seen a huge surge in support. The state was disillusioned with the Congress government led by Captain Amarinder Singh. In fact, the fact that the Captain, the top leadership of the Akalis and the central leadership of the BJP are working in the league has gained momentum. Therefore, the Congress under the leadership of Amarinder Singh was considered as unfit as the Akali Dal and the BJP. In the last elections, the sections which had preferred the Akali-BJP alliance to the Congress, started shifting to the AAP. He wanted to give a try to the untested party. This is the reason for the huge surge in support for AAP ahead of the new Chief Minister Mr. Channi taking over. With the change of guard, however, those sections have second thoughts. It is clear that some sections of them are coming back to the Congress.
The change in guard maneuver has somewhat blunted the edge of the anti-incumbency wave. There is one remarkable thing in the political discourse in Punjab. Mr Channi has managed to make a household name in a short span of time. He, being the first Dalit Chief Minister of the state, gives a social dimension to the discourse. People are ready to see him. He seems to have reserved his decision regarding him and the Congress. It is not yet clear how much damage the ongoing fight between the chief minister and his state party chief could cause. But it is sure to do harm.
in weight
The biggest defeat is the AAP as a result of the reinstatement of the Congress party. There is a lot of goodwill towards the party among all sections of the Punjab society at this time. This is more pronounced among young and first-time voters. It has been able to attract the erstwhile voters of both the Akali Dal and the Congress. Several women from remote villages also said that they want to give a chance to the new party. However, AAP lacks organisation, cadre and recognizable faces in many constituencies. Some see it as a party with out-of-state roots. However, its biggest hurdle is the delay in declaring the chief minister’s face.
Electorally, there is a tight contest between the Congress and the AAP, with a slight edge for the ruling Congress at the moment. The one who makes fewer mistakes has a higher chance of winning. However, the mistakes of the AAP and the Congress do not have the same potential for harm. Your mistakes are likely to cause him less harm. While even small mistakes of Congress can change the mood of the state in favor of Aam Aadmi Party, which is seen as an alternative that deserves a chance. The highly networked and knowledgeable farmers of Punjab may be in a bad mood when they return home from the agitation.
Parakala Prabhakar is a former Communications Consultant to the Government of Andhra Pradesh and Managing Director of RightFolio, a knowledge enterprise based in Hyderabad.
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