Concerns that the surge by a massive delta variant, potentially leading to a third India-wide wave, may be exaggerated.
once again, COVID-19 situation in the state of Kerala Everyone is in the headlines for the wrong reasons. More than 60% of the newly reported cases in India in the past week have come from Kerala alone, and this naturally raises many eyebrows. How can a state with only 2.5% of India’s population contribute to 60% of its caseload?
circulation of antibodies
One thing we need to acknowledge first is that the most recent nationwide seroprevalence survey conducted by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) in May 2021 estimated that Kerala had the lowest prevalence of COVID-19 antibodies. was 44%. National average up to 68%. This meant that Kerala also had the highest proportion of the population not exposed to the virus at that time. Given that the virus will continue to spread until a certain level of herd immunity is achieved in the population, either through vaccination or through natural infections, it is a foregone conclusion that cases will increase whenever overcrowding occurs. Will keep happening
Kerala has already vaccinated 75% of its adult population (55% of the total population) with at least one dose. The daily new COVID-19 cases declined after reaching around 40,000 daily during the first week of May to a plateau of around 11,000 cases reaching 12,000 cases and a test positivity rate (TPR) of around 10%. In the first week of July this year. Since then, however, the state has been witnessing a steady but gradual increase in daily new cases, leading to an increase in daily testing that peaked at nearly two lakh in early August.
drop in daily testing
However, a drop in daily testing saw a drop in the daily caseload since August 1. The seven-day average daily tests till Onam on August 21 had come down from 1.7 lakh to 1 lakh, while the TPR had increased from 12% to 17%. A series of illogical lockdown relaxation measures and a resultant intermittent increase in mobility on random days, coupled with lower daily testing and an increase in festivities leading up to Onam, resulted in a spike in infections.
Yet, the reduction in the daily new cases reported in the days leading up to Onam, largely aided by low testing, led to an unintentional feeling that cases were under control. But, it is now understood that the fall was not natural as cases had risen above the 30,000 mark in the past few days due to a slight increase in daily testing. If the state still conducted two lakh daily tests, it would report around 40,000 daily cases. But the low level of testing is still keeping the number of daily cases reported below that.
Important questions remain. There are genuine apprehensions about whether the current surge in cases in Kerala is due to a new variant of the virus, whether it will mark the start of a third wave in India, and whether the current surge could lead to the downfall of Kerala’s health. care system.
Delta Variant Spread
It should be noted that the delta variant – a variant that was the primary cause of most cases during the second wave in the rest of India – was recently detected in about 90% of the samples tested from Kerala. This implies that this variant of the novel coronavirus is still catching up with the population of Kerala, while the rest of India has already seen a large wave of this type, resulting in 68% seroprevalence in India . Therefore, concerns about the current surge in Kerala, mainly by the delta variant, potentially leading to a third wave in the country, may be exaggerated.
Kerala’s health care infrastructure had approached saturation during the peak of its second wave, when daily new cases exceeded 40,000 and TPR reached a high of 28%. Considering the current surge in cases and rising TPRs, it is highly likely that the state will once again experience a similar situation in the coming days and affect its health care infrastructure. Therefore, the authorities should be extremely alert to this situation and ensure that the increasing numbers and hospitalizations do not overwhelm the health care system.
The state should immediately take stock of its existing health care infrastructure and see how long it can last given the current caseload and its inevitable increase in the coming days. If it can’t handle the impending surge, which could potentially see over 40,000 daily new cases in the immediate period and associated increased hospitalizations, it would be a very short period of one to two for the state to go into complete lockdown. There may be wisdom. To stop this surge allow weeks and matters to calm down in the immediate period. Meanwhile, the state must do everything possible to speed up vaccination, significantly increase testing and tracing efforts so that many cases go undetected. Once the cases are brought under control, it should evaluate the options and envisage more rational lockdown relaxations than those currently in effect.
Read also | After Onam, new COVID-19 cases take a big jump in Kerala
If managed effectively, the current growth will slow down in a week or two and by then, natural infection and vaccination will take at least 60% to 70% of population-level COVID-19 immunity in Kerala , which will bring it closer. to the rest of India, but with a lower human toll than other large Indian states.
Rijo M. John is a health economist and assistant professor at Rajagiri College of Social Sciences, Kochi.. He regularly @RijoMJohn . Let’s analyze India’s COVID19 data on
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