Arrangements for the public meeting to be addressed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Coimbatore. , Photo credit: The Hindu
WA year full of electoral contests in various states has passed, which will be followed by intense campaigning for the Lok Sabha elections to be held in mid-2024. For political journalists, it will be a busy year of travel and coverage. This will also be where we need some defense in the face of that oft-repeated and obvious question, who do you think is winning?
In earlier days, before our ‘WhatsAppverses’ got serious and divided, elections were a carnival, and emotional investment in the outcome was limited to candidates and political parties. At the most, to make things interesting, we will set up an office pool and the person who wins the bet will buy us tea and samosas at work.
It is not like that now. In today’s deeply partisan political climate, journalists need to read the room (or WhatsApp chat group) before answering the all-important question of who we think will win. This is clearly a more difficult task than filing dispatches off the campaign trail.
After years of being shunned by many for not giving an echo chamber-compliant answer (even though the results proved I was right), I felt I needed a strategy to protect myself. But what could this defensive strategy be? Who can I turn to for help with strategy? Then I realized that being a political journalist, the answer to my question lies in the pool of people who solve political puzzles, namely the Indian voter.
The first big lesson for a political reporter on the field is that there are vocal voters and silent voters. Almost always, there are some who are outspoken about their support for a party while others who often belong to more vulnerable social groups remain silent and appreciate secret balloting. In election reversals – results contrary to most media narratives – it is the silent voters who create the undercurrent of support for the party less expected to win. Listening to these silent voters amid the cacophony of more socially ‘safe’ opinion-providers is a great way to get the election result right. But this is not an easy task.
In nearly all the election campaigns I’ve covered, I’ve developed a healthy respect for the ability of voters, especially non-local ones, to be fooled by journalists. Before we can even pose our (mostly) intrusive questions, voters make assessments about our background and inclinations. Conversations are usually full of opinions that we are ready to listen to; Opinions that confirm a certain confirmation bias. The journalist’s job is to avoid idiosyncrasies and to read the phrases and words being used to understand the subtle message.
These two lessons for the Indian voter – speaking up with your vote in a big way and maintaining the secrecy of the ballot; And, if forced to commit to an outcome, reading the room correctly – are invaluable. This is not an incentive to lie or display cowardice; Ultimately, a reporter’s dispatches paint a picture of what they’ve seen. It’s just a lesson in how to answer that all-important question on election results and carefully negotiate a social minefield.
nistula.hebbar@thehindu.co.in