According to Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, the US intelligence community estimates that it will take “years” for Russian forces to recover from the losses in carrying out their war in Ukraine.
“Their ground forces are now so depleted that we expect them to take years to recover in many ways,” he told a conference in Washington DC on Wednesday.
This could lead Russia to rely more heavily on “asymmetric tools” such as cyberattacks, attempts to control energy, or even nuclear weapons to project “power and influence”.
Critical Evaluation: Haynes said Russia was starting to focus its attention on the Donetsk region. The intelligence community believes that Russia will struggle to overtake the Eastern Province – as it is closer to achieving in neighboring Luhansk – but Russian President Vladimir Putin believes the times are on Moscow’s side. Is. Because they think the West will eventually get tired of supporting Ukraine.
“The general consensus is that the war in Ukraine will be prolonged,” Haynes said, acknowledging the US assessment of the situation is “serious.”
Three scenarios: Haines said the intelligence community sees three possible scenarios that may come to mind in the coming weeks and months.
“Most likely, the conflict remains a grinding struggle in which the Russians have incremental gains but no success,” she said. Under that scenario, Russian forces would have gained consolidated control of Luhansk and Donetsk as well as southern Ukraine.
There are other scenarios in which Russia could succeed and refocus on Kyiv or Odessa; Or, finally, that Ukraine could stabilize the front line and start making small profits, possibly in Kherson or elsewhere in southern Ukraine.