The government has quietly abandoned the practice of releasing preliminary monthly freight trade estimates at the beginning of the month and updating them with ‘quick’ estimates two weeks later. Foreign trade data for October 2022 and onwards will be released by the middle of next month, as was the case two years ago. Perhaps the idea of releasing early estimates for export and import shipments towards the end of 2020 was driven by the need for some more high-frequency indicators to assess the direction of the economy as it regained its footing after being battered by the COVID-19 lockdown. Collected. While one cannot really say that the pandemic is over yet, it is a sensible decision to now revert to the old system when ‘quick’ estimates were issued on the fifteenth day of each subsequent month, or if If that date falls on a weekend then earlier. Early projections have given conflicting signals about the economy in recent months, due to a sharp shift between initial and ‘quick’ estimates in the direction of trade volume and even export growth. For example, the first data set recommended for August 1.15% contraction in exports – the first such contraction since February 2021 – while September numbers see a decline of 3.5% Year after year. Even as industry and economists read it as an omen of global turmoil and slowdown coming home to hurt the Indian recovery engine, ‘quick’ estimates for both these months outbounded. The merchandise trade showed growth of 1.6% and 4.8%, respectively.
The difference in the two sets of numbers largely stems from the lack of electronic data interchange facilities at some ports, thus making it difficult to include such shipments in the first data set. But with such wide variations, it is better to wait until all the data is compiled and released at once – even if efforts must be doubled to ensure all ports on the electronic data system are open. The government must now stick to a clear timetable for releasing trade data – recent months have also been marred by suspense over when preliminary estimates will be released and the last set came about 90 minutes before midnight on October 3. Being selective about data points. For March, it initially released only export numbers, and preliminary data for September omitted growth rates for India’s top 10 exports, import items. A consistent, comprehensive and transparent approach to releasing economic data will also strengthen the country’s credibility as a credible alternative to China.